Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on the Sustainability of Groundwater Aquifers. Application in Moudania Aquifer in N. Greece

Abstract

In this paper, the impacts of climate changes over an aquifer system in northern Greece are investigated. Climate estimations over a number of parameters, such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind velocity, solar radiation etc., were extracted using one of the most recent Regional Climate Models, KNMI-RACMO2. They were then inputted to the groundwater model MODFLOW in a series of transient simulations, in an effort to investigate the impacts of anticipated changes on parameters, such as infiltration and evapotranspiration that affect the water balance over the watershed. Five different methods for the calculation of evapotranspiration were implemented in order to minimize any bias or uncertainty. The aim of the methodology presented in this paper is to lead to the clarification of whether a change to the current water resources management practices, in order to ensure the sustainability of the aquifer system, is necessary and to what extent. The results of this application indicate that if current practices continue to apply in the future, the water balance in the aquifer will be negatively affected. In order to reverse this situation, a number of measures need to be taken, with the most important to introduce a more rational use of water, especially in the agricultural sector. Since the case study aquifer can be characterized, according to the meteorological conditions and the water uses, as a typical Mediterranean one, the same conclusions are expected to be deducted in many other similar groundwater systems as well.