Assessing the greenhouse effect in agriculture.

Abstract

Evidence that concentrations of CO2 and trace gases in the atmosphere have increased is irrefutable. Whether or not these increased concentrations will lead to climate changes is still open to debate. Direct effects of increased CO2 concentrations on physiological processes and individual plants have been demonstrated and the consequences for crop growth and production under various circumstances are evaluated with simulation models. The consequences of CO2 enrichment are considerable under optimal growing conditions. However, the majority of crops are grown under sub-optimal conditions where the effects of changes in CO2 are often less. The same holds for the possible indirect effects of environmental changes such as temperature rise. Studies on individual plants under optimal conditions are therefore not sufficient for evaluating the effects at a farm, regional, national or supra-national level. Simulation studies help to bridge the gap between the various aggregation levels and provide a basis for various studies of policy options at various aggregation levels.