Abstract
Environmental degradation is prone to increase severe weather conditions, such as heat waves and prolonged rainfall. The purpose of the study is to examine the effect of climate factors (temperature, rainfall, rain days, humidity, sea level pressure), floods and extreme events like tropical storm, tornado, typhoon and strong wind on dengue fever cases and Malaysian economic growth in the period of year 2014-2020. A correlation test was used to find the relationship between the independent, dependent and moderating variables. The study was carried out using secondary monthly data. The results showed a significant correlation between the climate change, dengue fever cases and economic growth in Malaysia. Temperature, humidity, sea level pressure and rain fall revealed a positive correlation with dengue fever cases, while rainy days and floods showed negative correlations. Besides that, increase of temperature, humidity, sea level pressure and floods moderate with dengue fever cases significantly lead to a lower economic growth.
Highlights
Climatic factors may influence the periodic and geological distribution of dengue disease in the study area
This implies that climate change in temperature, sea level pressure, humidity and rain fall lead to an increase in dengue fever cases in Malaysia
The estimates of the coefficient of average monthly temperature change on dengue disease are positively significant 2.642, 3.339 and 2.349 with a 1 percent and 5 percent level of significance, under Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Fixed-Effects (FE) and First Difference Generalised Method of Moments (FD-GMM) systems respectively. This implies that a 1 percent of climate change of temperature leads to an increase of 2.6 to 3.3 dengue fever cases in Malaysia
Summary
Climatic factors (such as heat and precipitation changes) may influence the periodic and geological distribution of dengue disease in the study area. As the threat of climate change becomes more prominent in all sectors, its shadow on health care, especially the rising incidence of dengue fever, is likely to prove deadly. A recent international study showed that the prevalence of spawning dengue fever increased with a heat increase of 1 degree Celsius (°C) [1]. We have observed temperature rises in Peninsular Malaysia and East Malaysia, which are -0.5°C - 1.5°C and 0.5°C - 1.0°C respectively in the past 40 years. It is expected that in the 100 years, the temperature in Peninsular Malaysia will rise by 1.1°C - 3.6°C, and the temperature in East Malaysia will rise by 1.0-3.5°C. Rainfall is expected to decrease by 8.8-18.7 percent 30 years later [2]
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