Assessing the effects of climate change on the current and future global distribution of three Tegu species using an optimized model

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ABSTRACT The global spread of invasive alien species, driven by climate change and globalization, has caused significant ecological and economicharm. Among these are Salvator merianae, S. rufescens, and Tupinambisteguixin—large-bodied lizards native to South America that have been widely distributed through the international pet trade. This study used an optimized MaxEnt model to evaluate their global invasion potential under near-current and future climate conditions, incorporating several climate scenarios. Results revealed species-specific patterns: T. teguixin shows the highest invasion potential under current conditions and is expected to expand globally, excluding Europe. In contrast, S. merianae and S. rufescensmay see declines, except in Oceania and Asia, respectively. These projections highlight the urgent need for conservation action, including stronger biosecurity, public education, and early detection programs. With global trade and climate change accelerating biological invasions, international cooperation and science-based policies will be essential to regulate the pet trade and prevent future introductions. Without effective intervention, native biodiversity and ecosystems face increasing risks, along with mounting economic costs. Combining predictive modeling with adaptive management offers a proactive path toward minimizing long-term impacts and enhancing ecosystem resilience in an era of rapid environmental change.