Assessing the demand for foreign currency through a value storage lens

This article focuses on investigating the impact of monetary policy on economic growth in Vietnam in both the short and long term using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) over the period from 2005 to 2023. The research results indicate that, in the long term, both M2 money supply and exchange rates have a positive impact on economic growth. Among these, the influence of the M2 money supply on growth is greater than that of exchange rates, suggesting that adjustments in the M2 money supply allow for immediate and comprehensive effects on the economy compared to adjustments in exchange rates. Conversely, real interest rates have an inverse effect on GDP in the long term.

The Impact of Fiscal and Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Southern African Custom Union (SACU) Member Economies between 1980 and 2017: A Panel ARDL Approach

This paper studies the existence of the long-run equilibrium relationship between the US M2 money supply (M2SL) and the price of Bitcoin (BTC) spanning January 2015 to April 2025. Utilizing a log-log model to focus on elasticity, this study employs a robust econometric methodology to examine the relationship between the US M2 money supply and Bitcoin (BTC) prices. The empirical findings confirm that the natural logarithms of M2 and BTC are integrated of order one, denoted as I (1). The Johansen test shows a long-run elasticity estimate of 2.65, suggesting that a 1% increase in the M2 money supply is associated with a 2.65% increase in the price of Bitcoin. The VECM analysis validates this long-run equilibrium, with a statistically significant error correction term (λ’ = -0.12), indicating that 12% of any deviation from the long-run path is corrected monthly. The cointegration tests for both variables provide strong evidence of a stable, long-run relationship. These results lead us to conclude that Bitcoin performs as a highly elastic asset with respect to changes in the M2 money supply.

Investors generally use various indicators to assess the performance of the capital market and the overall economic condition, one of which is the LQ45 Index. The movement of this index is influenced by the BI Rate, M2 Money Supply, Exchange Rate, and Inflation, which affect liquidity, market stability, and investor behavior. This study aims to examine and analyze the impact of the BI Rate, M2 Money Supply, Exchange Rate, and Inflation on the LQ45 Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The research method used is a documentary study. The population and sample were taken using the time series method. The data analysis techniques used include descriptive statistical analysis, classical assumption tests, multiple linear regression analysis, coefficient of determination, and hypothesis testing. The results of the study show that the BI Rate does not affect the LQ45 Index, M2 Money Supply has a positive effect on the LQ45 Index, the Exchange Rate has a negative effect on the LQ45 Index, and Inflation has a positive effect on the LQ45 Index.

It is prominent to note that supply for money has become the most saturated literature amongst researchers. Therefore, our study is designed to investigate the money supply in Indonesia.We use five variables in our models: real GDP as a proxy of output, 3-month interbank interest rate, exchange rate, and two measures of money supply: narrow money (M1) and broad money (M2). We compile our data from Indonesia's economic and financial statistics, published by Bank Indonesia, and incorporate quarterly data, encompassing the 2011:1 to 2019:4 period of time. The multiple linear regression method is deployed to assess the effect of real GDP, interest rate, and exchange rate on M1 and M2 money supply. The estimation is executed separately following two proxies of the money supply.Our results imply that real GDP and exchange rate positively affect both M1 and M2 Money supply, while interest rate generates a negative effect. These results consider that Keynes's liquidity preferences theory is suitable to examine the money supply behavior of Indonesia, in addition to the exchange rate

The state space model is effective on analyzing non-stationary time series data, especially in adapting better to the dynamic variation analysis of the time series data and forecasting demand,by replacing fixed parameters with the variable ones.This article elaborates the constructing process of state space model by the measurement equation and state equation. This article also selects M0 money supply, M1 money supply, M2 money supply as the characterize variables of monetary policy, selects the national housing climate Index as characterize variables of real estate development,status regression model with stronger dynamic analysis capabilities as empirical analysis tool, with 2005 to 2012 monthly data of relevant variables as empirical analysis object, carry out the empirical study of relationship between the development of China's real estate industry and the amount of the three currencies. The empirical results show that the amount of three currencies elastic influence for real estate development are positive, M2 money supply impact of greater intensity. Among, M0 money supply influence gradually weakened, M1 and M2 money supply influence gradually increased.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth and the direction of causality between them have been received a lot of attention recently by many scholars. It is also important to analyze this relationship and the direction of causality due to implications of policies. In this study the relationship between financial development, trade liberalization and economic growth for Turkey are examined using three different models. Model 1, 2 and 3 investigate the effect of domestic loans to the private sector and trade liberalization on GDP, the impact of the domestic credit provided by banks to the private sector and trade liberalization on GDP and the effect of M2 money supply and M2 trade liberalization on GDP, respectively. Data extracted from World Development Indicators. Autoregressive-Distributed Lag Bound Test (ARDL) is used as a co-integration test to determine the long run relationship between variables. In addition, Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is utilized to test the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth according to the three financial indicators such as domestic loans to the private sector, the domestic credit provided by banks to the private sector and M2 money supply. According to the results there is a unidirectional relationship from economic growth to domestic loans to the private sector and the domestic credit provided by banks to the private sector. Additionally, the results indicate that a bidirectional relationship exist between M2 money supply and economic growth.

<p>The M2 money supply over the last five years has tended to increase by 10-12%, which is allegedly due to macro factors, namely, low savings interest and increasing exchange rate requirements, causing rising inflation rates. This research aims to determine the influence of savings interest and the exchange rate on the money supply in Indonesia for the 2004-2023 period. The analysis technique used in this research is linear regression with annual time series data of 20 observation units. This simultaneous model has never been studied by previous researchers. The results of this research analysis provide information that every change in savings interest negatively affects the M2 Money supply by 78.60% and a significant, positive effect between the Exchange Rate and Money in circulation by 78.40%. Meanwhile, simultaneous changes in savings interest and exchange rates have a significant effect on changes in money supply in Indonesia and the influence is substantial at 91.20%. Therefore, the conclusion of this research is, that partially and simultaneously the proposed model exhibits a significant influence between savings interest and the exchange rate on the amount of money circulating in Indonesia. Therefore, it is crucial to pay attention to the current macroeconomic conditions concerning these two factors, especially the stability of the exchange rate, to ensure that it does not increase the money supply and inflation which may reduce people’s purchasing power in Indonesia.</p>

We investigate the impact of federal government budget deficits and federal personal income tax rates on the ex post real interest rate yield on ten-year US Treasury notes. Using autoregressive two-stage least squares estimations for the post-Bretton Woods era, we find that the yield on these Treasury issues has been an increasing function of the federal budget deficit as a percent of GDP, both in the form of the total/unified deficit and the primary deficit, and also an increasing function of the average effective federal personal income tax rate. The estimation reveals that growth in the M2 money supply (relative to GDP) acts to reduce the real interest rate yield on ten-year Treasuries. Consequently, while a growing money supply can help to keep real interest rates on Treasury notes (and hence federal debt service costs) down, policymakers should be sensitive to the fact that both budget deficit increases and tax rate increases can elevate the real interest rate. JEL codes : E43, E62, H62

The Omani economy frequently moves in unison with changing oil prices because it is highly dependent on this commodity. Given this relationship, it is reasonable to theorize that the Omani narrow money supply (M1) is also sensitive to oil price fluctuations. This study examines the linkages between oil price changes and the M1 money supply in Oman for the period 1980 to 2016 and analyzes the nature of discovered relationships. An autoregressive distributed lag model is used to test the relationship between Omani oil price fluctuations and the money supply over time from 37 annual observations. This study finds that changes in oil prices and the M1 money supply are strongly correlated in the long run, which has implications for policymakers looking to diversify the Omani economy.

This paper investigates the impact of the financial condition index on inflation in Vietnam by using the Autoregressive- Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) combined with a time series dataset from January 2013 to December 2022. Research results show that loosening financial conditions will put pressure on inflation in the short term but not in the long term. In addition, the oil price and M2 money supply also have a positive impact on Vietnam’s inflation. On that basis, this paper also proposes policy recommendations to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in Vietnam

Subject. The economic environment in Russia, similar to other countries, is represented by the consumer price index. It is regulated by the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Since Russia participates in international economic relations, its economic environment is affected by the monetary policy of the USA, because this country plays the greatest role in the global economy and the global economic system as a whole. At the moment, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System of the USA has a stronger impact on consumer price inflation in Russia than the monetary policy of the Central Bank, because the US economy is significantly larger than the Russian economy. Specifically, an increase in money supply in the USA, required to stimulate economic activity in the country, can accelerate the growth of the consumer price index in our country. It is therefore important to build economic and mathematical models in order to predict the consumer price index in Russia based on the indicators of the CB and the FRS. Purpose. The purpose of our study was to determine the effect of the monetary policy of the CB and the FRS on the consumer price index in Russia and derive multiple autoregression equations in order to predict the consumer inflation rate in our country based on the indicators of the CB and the FRS. Methodology. In our study, we used general and specific scientific methods: analysis, synthesis, and statistical methods (correlation and regression analysis). The study was based on the analysis of relevant scientific literature and economic journals. Conclusions. The study determined that the monetary policy of the FRS directly affects the consumer price index in Russia. It also stresses the need to develop measures aimed at eliminating the side effects of the monetary policy of the FRS in Russia. The article demonstrates a strong negative effect of increased US money supply on the economic situation in Russia and a strong correlation between the M2 money supply in the USA, the US dollar index, and the consumer price index in Russia, as compared to a less significant impact of the key rate of the CB and the M2 money supply in Russia.

Current State of US Economy Post-Pandemic and the Future of Core Inflation

Price bubbles may be a leading indicator for financial crises. In history, some of the important price bubble cases occurred in the real estate or housing market. In this study, the existence of a price bubbles, the periods of the existing bubbles, and the factors affecting the formation of bubbles in the housing sector for both Turkey and TR22 Region (Balıkesir-Çanakkale) are being investigated. Data covering 126 monthly housing price indices for the period between January 2010 and June 2020 were used. According to the SADF and GSADF test results, some evidence of housing bubbles for both Turkey and TR22 Region was reached. According to the results of the logit model applied in the study, the increase in the housing loan volume and the real estate interest rates as well as the decrease in the BIST-100 and M2 money supply, increase the probability of a housing price bubble for the TR22 Region. Additionally, the increase in the housing loan volume, real estate interest rates, BIST-100 and CPI as well as the decrease in the industrial production index, increase the probability of housing bubbles for Turkey. Considering those factors, the regulatory authorities in Turkey such as the BRSA and CBRT should take preventive measures to maintain price, financial and economic stability. In addition, those who invest in the housing sector should carefully monitor the existence and causes of price bubbles in this sector.

This paper investigates the impacts of Central Bank Indicators on Bitcoin/TL prices as a Commodity by using the ARDL Bounds Test. In the article, monthly data between 2017:09 – 2019:12 is used. The Central Bank Indicators are explained by M2 money supply, one-month interest rates of bank deposits, one-week repo interest rate, 10-year government bond. In the paper, Bitcoin's prices are considered as a Commodity in TL. The stationary behaviour of variables is investigated by using the ADF test and it is found that all the variables are stationary in first differences for the trend and constant model. But the price of Bitcoin in TL is stationary in level for the constant model. Thus, to discover the long-run relationship between variables, the ARDL test is applied. As a result of the ARDL test, it is found that there is a long-run relationship between all the Central Bank indicators and Bitcoin/TL prices. According to obtained results, while the M2 money supply and Turkey’s 10-year government bonds (%) move together with Bitcoin prices; the one-week repo interest rate as a political rate, and one-month interest rates of the deposit move in opposite directions with Bitcoin prices in a long-run.