Assessing Space Heating Demandon a Regional Level: Evaluation of a Bottom‐Up Model in the Scope of a Case Study

Abstract

SummaryThe residential sector constitutes a major energy consumer, particularly on account of its needs for space heating. Offering a high leverage potential, this sector is a suitable starting point for greenhouse gas mitigation policies. By providing predictions of the energy demand of building stocks, bottom‐up building energy models represent a first step toward deriving strategies for abatement of detrimental effects related to housing energy use.This article aims at evaluating the performance of a simplified bottom‐up housing energy model. A global sensitivity analysis was performed to study the model's structure and the impact of individual model parameters. Moreover, an extensive final energy consumption data set allowed for an in‐depth comparison of this model with primary data in the scope of a case study in a Swiss municipality.On an individual building scale, the model fails to accurately simulate the energy demand. Deviations can be attributed to a range of factors, such as variability in occupants’ behavior and problems of representativeness in the underlying statistical database. Nevertheless, such under‐ or overestimations level off on an aggregated scale. In particular, the model reproduces the overall characteristics of the residential building stock's heating demand well. It is therefore well suited as a building stock model and provides a promising basis for an extended assessment of housing energy demands. In future research work, we will apply this model to a larger region in order to study various types of settlements from a life cycle perspective and to derive targeted measures aimed at reducing environmental impacts.