Abstract
Assessing precipitation seasonal forecasts in Central Africa using North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME)
Highlights
Central Africa (CA) is one of the regions of the world where rainfall is very complex and varies on several scales (Jenkins et al 2005)
In the first part of this evaluation, the climatologies of two observations (GPCC and North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) CPC PRATE) were calculated, and a difference between the 2 climatologies was calculated in order to measure the uncertainty that may exist between these data observations
The results indicate that the DJF seasons below and above normal, March to May (MAM) above normal, JJA below normal and September to November (SON) below normal have values less than 0.21 justifying that during these seasons less than 50\% precipitation was well predicted by the model Ensemble Mean (MME)
Summary
Central Africa (CA) is one of the regions of the world where rainfall is very complex and varies on several scales (Jenkins et al 2005) In this region, agriculture is practiced in many countries; productivity is highly dependent on the availability of water resources, which are controlled by the distribution and amount of rain. The verification of water resources in CA nowadays has become essential because the economy of the countries of this region depends on agriculture and livestock ( Roncoli et al 2012 ) This populated region with over 500 million people is very sensitive to climatic variations that can affect the population (Fotso-Nguemo et al 2017). NMME have been developed to provide information on the problems of climate variability and especially to improve quality of seasonal forecasts around the world (Kirtman et al 2014; Thober et al 2015; Slater et al 2017; Shukla et al 2016)
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