Assessing disaster vulnerability and proposing an adaptive disaster risk reduction framework: the case of Istanbul

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Abstract The importance of vulnerability analysis in disaster management is increasingly recognized, especially in megacities like Istanbul. This study focuses on conducting an in-depth analysis of the vulnerabilities of Istanbul's districts to various disasters such as earthquakes, landslides, floods, tsunamis, and sea-level rise. The evaluation considered three key factors: exposure, which refers to the shocks and stresses that a district may experience and the frequency and extent of potential losses; sensitivity, which indicates how the district responds to these shocks; and adaptive capacity, which reflects the district’s ability to withstand and recover from such impacts. According to these key factors, indicators were identified, relevant data were collected and generated, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process method was applied for weighting. The study reveals that districts located in the southern belt, particularly those with dense urbanization and coastal areas, exhibit higher levels of vulnerability. Among Istanbul's 39 districts, 13 districts, including Gungoren, Bahcelievler, and Zeytinburnu, were classified as highly vulnerable. Additionally, 14 districts were moderately vulnerable, 9 had low vulnerability, and 3, including Silivri, Catalca, and Sile, had very low vulnerability. An adaptive disaster risk reduction framework was proposed for the districts. These findings are intended to assist local governments in more effectively planning disaster management and risk reduction strategies. The findings support Istanbul's resilience and offer valuable guidance for urban planning and disaster management, both locally and globally. Graphical abstract