Assessing Coastal Resilience from Space

Bar-built or barrier estuaries (here referred to as Small tidal inlets, or STIs), which are commonly found along wave-dominated, microtidal mainland coasts, are highly likely to be affected by climate change (CC). Due to their pre-dominance in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world, many STIs are located in developing countries, where STI related activities contribute significantly to the national GDPs while community resilience to coastal changes is low, with the corollary that CC impacts on STIs may lead to very serious socio-economic consequences. While assessing CC impacts on tidal inlets is in general difficult due to inherent limitations of contemporary numerical models where long term morphodynamic simulations are concerned, these difficulties are further exacerbated due to the lack of sufficient model input/verification data in often data poor developing country STI environs. As a solution to this problem, Duong et al. (2016) proposed two different process based snap-shot modelling approaches for data poor and data rich environments. This article demonstrates the application of Duong et al.’s (2016) snap-shot modelling approach for data poor environments to 3 case study sites representing the 3main STI types; Permanently open, locationally stable inlets (Type 1), Permanently open, alongshore migrating inlets (Type 2) and Seasonally/Intermittently open, locationally stable inlets (Type 3).Results show that Type 1 and Type 3 inlets will not change Type even under the most extreme CC driven variations in system forcing considered here. Type 2 inlets may change into Type 1 when CC results in a reduction in annual longshore sediment transport. Apart from Type changes, CC will affect the level of inlet stability and some key behavioural characteristics (e.g. inlet migration distances, inlet closure times). In general, CC driven variations in annual longshore sediment transport rates appear to be more relevant for future changes in inlet stability and behaviour, rather than sea level rise as commonly believed. Based on model results, an inlet classification scheme which, for the first time, links inlet Type with the Bruun inlet stability criteria is presented.

Sea-level rise enhances carbon accumulation in United States tidal wetlands

The study re-affirmed that the economy of IGAD region as very vulnerable to climate change. The vulnerability of population to climate change is exacerbated by the structural issues that reinforces poverty, inequality and deprivation in the society, making the poor most impacted. Climate variability, ranging from unpredictable, intense and at times extreme weather events such as droughts, floods and landslides, are on the rise, and a likely trend for years ahead, threatening ecosystems and livelihoods at alarming rates. The region is experiencing increasing frequency and intensity of droughts and floods, putting the livelihoods of many at risks and also testing the legitimacy of national governments as custodian of social services for their citizens. Repeated failed weather inform of prolonged droughts are becoming a regional new normal, a trend that is worrying for poverty alleviation efforts of achieving the national social economic transformation such as ongoing 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, working towards African Union (AU) agenda 2063, and could reverse the past gains across member states in elimination of hunger and poverty. Kenya and Uganda targeted in this assessment, lose annually on average of US$56.96 million and US$ 113.86 million respectively to natural disasters related damages resulting from droughts, mudslides, and floods among others. In the coming century (2100), Kenya is projected to lose about 7.2% of its GDP (US$ 18.8 billion), while Uganda 6.3% of GDP (US$ 9.5 billions) annually to climate disasters. However, the provision of climate services inform of early warning and decision advisory in production system would significantly reduce the levels of these losses across all sectors. For examples: Economically, improvements of climate services has been linked to: 1) Agricultural sector (avoidance of crop losses from unsuitable weather; timing of crop protection, planning and harvesting; increased farm production and scales; more efficient scheduling of the use of agricultural machinery, minimization of drought relief costs. In air transport (aviation), reduced fuel consumption through route planning, improved scheduling of flight arrival and departures; minimization of airline costs from aircraft diversions; minimization of search and rescue costs; reduction of accidents and emission; saving in passenger times, materials and working times (airport maintenance). In marine transport (reduction of accidents and environmental damages, fuel savings, more efficient rescue operations). In oil prospecting (avoidance of unnecessary shutdown of offshore oil and gas operations; more efficient planning of energy production and diversity). In energy sector (Prediction of power demands, power failure reduction, savings in material and working times (maintenance), energy savings). In construction sector (potential to eliminate serious construction problems a priori (risk control system). In flood/humanitarian protection (savings in human lives and property, more efficient rescue operations. Socially: protection of life and property through avoidance of loss of life and property from natural disasters. In research, improved information and data to the scientific community. Leisure: Contribution to the day-to-day safety, comfort, enjoyment and general convenience of citizens, including recreation, travel/ commuting and other direct and indirect forms of societal benefits. Environmentally: In terms of air quality monitoring and warnings; Reducing adverse health impacts; saving human lives in possible environmental accidents (evacuations); minimization of release of toxic substances and other pollutants; management of local environmental quality. The World Bank estimates that upgrading climate services e.g. hydromet development could reduce the levels of disaster losses by about 10% for low-income countries, such as Uganda; a 20% reduction in lower middle income (e.g. Kenya), 50% in upper middle income, and 100% in high income (OECD) countries. Across all the models applied in these estimations i.e. the 'Benefit Transfers' and 'Avoided loss' methods, the provision of climate services have all yielded positive results in both short and long term in climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts across these economies. In a short and medium run, Uganda is capable of avoiding an estimated US$11.39 million per year to economic losses from natural disasters by strengthening early warning systems through climate services. This is about 0.028% of its GDP losses avoided per year to climate disasters. These gains are even higher, where the systems are upgraded to European standards (100%), saving the country almost US$113.86 million per year to avoid economic loss.

The knowledge base to support climate change adaptation is rapidly growing with the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2022 report on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability with over 34,000 citations; nearly three times compared to its predecessor published in 2014. This information is complex, requiring specialist knowledge to interpret the science and further expertise to understand how to act upon the information. The small pool of experts across the world presents a challenge with the need of an ever-growing set of decision-makers who need tailored information.To date, most attention has focused on the use of machine learning for climate science rather than the application of AI technologies to enhance climate services provision. With the advent of public access to large language models and more generally, generative AI technologies, we consider here the opportunities that they bring to solve the problems around delivering climate services but also the implications on the pillars of saliency, credibility and legitimacy.We present the findings from the “Towards AI for Climate Services” workshop held on 22 February 2024 in the UK which aimed to understand if and how AI technologies could help to address existing challenges in the sector. Participants represented academic, public and private providers of climate and AI services. Discussions focused on three aspects: challenges in climate services that AI technologies are addressing, emerging risks with employing AI technologies and pathways to mitigating these risks.We will show that while many of the issues raised are not exclusive to using AI technologies, their rapid development and accessibility suggest that the climate services sector need to urgently engage with the debate

The disproportionate impacts of climate change on frontline communities become further amplified when inadequate provision of climate services leads to limited support around climate risks and adaptation measures. To better understand the state of climate services available to Native American Tribes, we surveyed Tribal climate service users and providers across the contiguous United States and Alaska. The survey assessed the availability and usefulness of 28 distinct climate services available to Tribal entities and asked how these services could be improved. Responses show Tribal users value a wide range of climate services, with grants, tools, trainings, and network rated highest. Responses also show climate services are provided more frequently for earlier stages of the adaptation cycle (e.g., planning), while fewer services are provided for later stages (e.g., implementation). However, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation were identified as planned or in progress for most Tribal respondents, suggesting growing need for climate services that support later adaptation stages. Tribal respondents also described many climate services as being inaccessible and a poor fit to their needs. Data tailored to Tribal priorities and a centralized location for simplified climate services were among the most frequent suggestions for improvement offered by Tribal respondents. Tribal respondents also identified the need for additional funding and staff capacity to carry out climate preparedness activities. Our findings may be used by a wide range of climate service providers to better support Tribes in their resilience efforts, particularly by engaging with Tribes to codevelop climate services tailored to Tribal needs. Significance Statement To better understand the state of climate services available to Native American Tribes, we conducted a survey of Tribal climate service users and providers. Our findings identified gaps and opportunities for better supporting Tribal climate adaptation efforts. We found that Tribal respondents value a wide range of climate services, with grants, tools, trainings, and networks rated highest. However, Tribal respondents also expressed a need for more tailored and accessible data that are relevant to Tribal decision-making, including climate information tailored to geographic domains unique to Tribes. These results suggest that as Tribes advance their climate adaptation efforts, there is opportunity to increase coordinated action among climate service providers to codevelop climate services tailored to Tribal needs.

Coastal structures constructed on sediments are designed against storms. A comprehensive design of a coastal structure will require the integration of numerical models for coastal hydrodynamics, structures and sediments. Numerical models for predicting tides, storm surge and wind waves have improved significantly over the past 30 years. Relative sea level rise may accelerate due to the greenhouse effect but cannot be predicted accurately at present. The capabilities for predicting damage to coastal structures have improved considerably for the last 20 years owing to the improved laboratory experimental capabilities followed by the development of numerical hydrodynamic models. The quantitative understanding of the various components involved in cross-shore and alongshore sand transport has also improved due to the improved understanding of hydrodynamic forcing mechanisms and the significant efforts in collecting field and laboratory data on nearshore morphological changes and suspended sediment. However, it is still not possible to predict the long-term cycle of beach erosion and recovery caused by sequences of storms. In short, numerical models have been successful for the coastal problems which are governed by the conservation equations for mass, momentum and energy for water. The future progress for coastal sediments and rubble mound structures may be made innovative technologies coupled with improved physical insights gained from numerical hydrodynamic models. The integration of the numerical models will become essential for the life cycle and performance-based design of coastal structures.

The availability of public satellite imagery, combined with advanced image processing, machine learning and cloud computing, triggered an unprecedented flow of information relevant to the coastal engineering community. From satellite imagery we can nowadays for example derive subtidal bathymetry, beach slopes, beach sediment types and coastline dynamics, at accuracies that increasingly allow for engineering applications. Regarding the latter two, global datasets on the occurrence of sandy beaches and historic shorelines have recently become available (Luijendijk et al., 2018). The high spatial and temporal resolution of this information yields more comprehensive understanding of our coasts and its dynamics (see Figure 1). This is not only of great added value in data-poor environments, it will also allow for more cost-effective coastal monitoring in data rich environments as the necessity of in-situ measurements will reduce in future. In this study we will expose the main drivers for coastal change for sandy and muddy coasts using satellite-derived shoreline (SDS) and machine learning algorithms.

The geomorphology, hydrodynamics, and ecological balance of blackish water lagoons are significantly shaped by environmental factors like wave action, tidal currents, longshore drift, and relative sea level rise. These factors also have a direct impact on the management and long-term sustainability of these lagoons. This study looks at shoreline dynamics and related environmental effects in the Chilika Lagoon in India as a representative case. Natural episodic events like waves, tides, currents, and global sea level rise are all responsible for the Chilika Lagoon's dynamic coastal environment's constant reshaping. This study specifically examines shoreline lateral displacement, recognising that volumetric sediment changes are not captured by this method. Because of the high-energy interactions between wave action, tidal currents, and longshore drift along the coastal front, lateral movement of the shoreline can result in either accretion or erosion. This study evaluates the shoreline configuration changes of Chilika Lagoon and surrounding coastal areas over a 42-year period using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) of the U.S. Geological Survey. The analysis shows that, with some notable exceptions in certain depositional zones like Palibandha, the western flank of the new mouth inlet, the section from the old mouth to Harchandi Temple, and the stretch from Pentukota to Konark beach, the majority of the region shows net erosional trends. Shoreline retreat can reach 40.29 meters in the northeastern lagoon sector, which is closest to the present new mouth and shows the highest rates of erosion. A secondary line of barrier bars is now visible due to the frontal barrier spit breaching, which is the cause of this erosion. At the Rushikulya River's mouth, a comparable erosional pattern is visible. However, with a maximum advancement of 11.69 meters, the western side of the new mouth inlet exhibits notable accretion. The dynamic behaviors of the lagoonal inlets affects these morphological changes, with longshore drift and wave energy concentration becoming more dominant due to the Rushikulya River's reduced sediment supply. The foreshores of the Chilika Sand Spits and the Puri township coast exhibit moderate shoreline changes. These are mostly caused by high water levels during the monsoon season and wave breakers created by seasonal winds. Coastal retreat and sediment loss have been made worse by the lack of notable post-event recovery after the effects of cyclones Phailin and Hudhud. Gornitz et al. (1994) developed the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) method to measure coastal vulnerability. This method incorporates a number of factors, such as shoreline change rate, mean tidal range, mean wave height, slope, relative sea level rise, and coastal geomorphology. Relative sea level rise stands out as the most important factor influencing vulnerability among these. A relative sea level rise of roughly 0.77 mm/year is indicated by data from the Paradip station (NOAA-PSMSL, 2015). The study area's CVI values, which are based on these parameters, show notable spatial variability in coastal risk throughout the Chilika region, ranging from 2.64 (very low vulnerability) to 21.45 (high vulnerability).

<p>Climate change is a major challenge for humanity and the related global implications will influence and threaten future economies and livelihood of coming generations, especially in developing countries. Central Asia is one of the regions mostly vulnerable to climate change considering its hydrological constraints. Tien Shan and Pamir, are among the largest mountain systems of the world, and play a significant role in serving water to the arid and continental region. Future water resources in Central Asia depend strongly on the cryosphere, particularly on snow, glaciers and permafrost. These cryospheric components store enormous amounts of fresh water and under the ongoing climate warming, expected changes will play an important role for future water availability in the region. Recent research clearly points out that a) for current climate conditions, water release by the cryosphere, particularly glaciers, is fundamental to keep runoff sufficient during the dry summer months and b) at the end of this century the water contribution of glaciers will be drastically reduced. Certain catchments are expected to completely dry-out. This setting creates a complex set of future challenges in the domains of water management, energy production, irrigation, agriculture, environment, disaster risk reduction, security and public health and potential political tension and conflicts between the countries cannot be excluded.</p><p>Notably, climate change also poses challenges in the field of climate services, as the lack of reliable data and commitment of the governments to fully integrate their observatory systems inhibits the sustainable adaptation and development of the region. At this point, the project CICADA (Cryospheric Climate Services for improved Adaptations) is currently contributing to the improvement of the Cryospheric Climate Services in the Central Asian countries by installing modern monitoring infrastructure, by training local students and researchers and by using the collected in situ measurements in combination with remote sensing and modelling to provide climate scenarios and services for water runoff and natural hazards. This is a prerequisite to allow early planning and adaptation measures within the water resource management and disaster risk reduction sectors.</p>

<p>The actual use of climate services depends on the identification of real user needs and their integration into the service. Thus, for the production of climate services user involvement is a vital component. Descriptions of practical approaches in the scientific literature are rare but necessary in order to gain better user insights and to improve the user-provider interface. In the frame of the ERA4CS project EVOKED, we apply the user-centered Living Lab approach to develop climate services with the objective to support the coastal adaptation process in Flensburg, a city vulnerable to coastal flooding due to sea-level rise. The aim is to transform climate information into valuable and useable climate services for users. In the beginning of the project we identified the climate service user needs of the community. Thereafter, we co-produced a web-based story map in collaboration with the users, as an information tool for the general public. The story map includes information on sea-level rise and its potential impacts and displays information on relevant adaptations options. For the production process of the story map we started with a compilation phase by drafting a first version of the story map from the providers’ perspective, followed by a demonstration and online feedback phase with user involvement. Based on the received feedback, we adjusted the story map to meet user needs. Results showed the need for clearer visualization of e.g. exposed locations in the city and more detailed information on adaptation measures. Preliminary findings indicate that the active provider-user interaction for the climate service may lead to long-term adaptation action.</p>

Globally, episodic coastal flooding is expected to have increasingly severe impacts on agriculture in low-lying coastal areas, as climate change continues to cause relative sea level rise (RSLR). This study analyses dairy farm exposure and impacts from extreme sea levels (ESL) and RSLR in Aotearoa-New Zealand (A-NZ). Spatio-temporal modelling is undertaken using: 1) a dairy production land layer; 2) a static coastal inundation model from 10, 100, 200 and 500-year annual recurrence interval (ARI) ESL events at 0–2 m RSLR (0.5 m increments); and 3) an Impact State (IS) scheme relating percentage of farmland inundated and depth of flooding at milking shed locations to categorise the severity of damage. Through this analysis we highlight the increasing exposure of the dairy industry to coastal flooding, with 472 farms potentially impacted (at or greater than IS 1) by a 10-year ARI event and 1276 farms exposed to a 500-year ARI event at current sea levels, rising to 1276 (10-year ARI) and 1344 farms (500-year ARI) with 2 m RSLR. RSLR is identified as the factor driving this increase in exposure and severity of impacts to dairying, with the increase in the number of farms impacted in a 500-year compared to 10-year event only 5 % greater when considered with 1 m of RSLR, compared to 37 % greater at 0 m RSLR. This has significant implications for A-NZ where the dairy industry is of high economic and social importance, demonstrating the need for industry targeted climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction measures.

Natural and human forcing in recent geomorphic change; case studies in the Rio de la Plata basin

<p>In recent years the financial sector has activated itself regarding the integration of climate change risks in its risk management. This is a slow process and the realization, that also physical risks engendered by climate change should be included, is even more recent (Hamaker-Taylor et al 2018). Within the segment of asset management, notably the management of real estate assets should have particular interest in climate change, as fossil free and efficient energy use, sustainable climate neutral building materials, and minimized exposure to climate change enhanced physical risks merit all sufficient attention. Overall asset oriented climate services will be an important segment (De Bruin et al 2020) This offers a significant scope for climate services for this segment within the financial sector, but both the financial sector as user and the suppliers of climate services are still very much in an exploratory stage of defining, ordering, providing, and using climate services, which are relevant for specific risk management issues within the financial sector (Keenan 2019).</p><p>The key issue for the real estate asset manager is how climate change would affect the value of its properties with and without adaptation measures, both as such, as well as in comparison to other property. Furthermore, the disclosure of hitherto not-disclosed risk information of assets will usually affect the prices of these assets, in comparison to similar not-exposed assets (Votsis and Perrels 2016). In this contribution we illustrate on the basis of Finnish cases under what conditions more information on climate change related risks (flooding; forest damage) could entail an economically viable climate service.</p><p><strong>References</strong></p><p>De Bruin, K., Hubert, R., Evain, J., Clapp, C., Stackpole Dahl, M., Bolt, J., Sillmann, J. (2020). Chapter 8: Physical Climate Risks and the Financial Sector—Synthesis of Investors’ Climate Information Needs, in Filho and Jacobs (eds), Handbook of Climate Services, Springer https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-36875-3</p><p>Hamaker-Taylor, R. Perrels, A. Canevari, L., Nurmi, V., Rautio, T. Rycerz, A. Larosa, F. (2018). <em>Results of Explorations of the Climate Services Market for the Financial Sector</em>, EU-MACS Deliverable 2.1, 23.12.2018. http://eu-macs.eu/outputs/#</p><p>Keenan, J.J. (2019). <em>Climate Adaptation Finance and Investment in California</em>, Earthscan – Routledge, London/New York, ISBN: 978-0-429-39875-9 (ebk) / ISBN: 978-0-367-02607-3 (hbk)</p><p>Votsis, A., Perrels, A. (2016). Housing prices and the public disclosure of flood risk: a difference-in-differences analysis in Finland, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, November 2016, Volume 53, Issue 4, pp 450–471, DOI 10.1007/s11146-015-9530-3</p>

<p>The European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) has a very important role in fostering the establishment of scientific excellence in many fields such as: Geoscience, Planetary and Environment. Over the years, COST Actions have contributed to European competitiveness through their many contributions to standardisation bodies, the small to medium enterprises originating from COST networks and the transfer of results to the European industry.</p><p>A series of COST Actions in the field of Meteorology developed global data transfer standards on the basis of infra-networks in collaboration with the World Meteorological Organization advantaging the competitiveness of the industrial participation. Such achievements include harmonisation of UV-index, developing operational programmes, services, networks and phenological responses to climate on a Pan-European Scale and were recognised by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.  European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is another good example as a result of an Action through its evolution to become an independent intergovernmental organisation with its own structure and headquarters supported by 34 states.</p><p>The key findings of COST networks not only contribute to the atmospheric drivers on the impacts of the global change but also increase the understanding of the function of marine ecosystems and its response to climate change. A number of Actions in the field of marine science have developed observing system to integrate the dynamic response of sea-level variations to combine effects of various natural drivers into multi-criteria tools by bringing together oceanographers and meteorologists. These developments urged for an integrated implementation of technology in sea-level monitoring, and for further international agreements on data storage and exchange.</p><p>A wide range of disciplines, evaluating the complex interactions between the oceans and the global change, geosciences, natural resources management, environmental monitoring, biogeochemical cycles,  ecology, hydrology, natural disasters, water cycle have well undertaken through COST Action networks. The results were published in high impact journals, guidelines were represented in position papers leading to new research projects on a global scale.  Participation in COST leads to significant results and follow-up in terms of number of proposals submitted for collaborative research in Horizon 2020, with a striking success rate of 33% (the Horizon 2020 average is at 12.2%). By enabling researchers and innovators from all career levels to network, COST connects complementary funding schemes, facilitating the entry of promising young talents into these schemes.</p><p>COST is committed to reinforcing its role as the leading networking instrument in the European Research Area (ERA), while creating even higher tangible impact on society.</p>

Spatial-temporal evolution of ecosystem services and its potential drivers: A geospatial perspective from Bairin Left Banner, China