Assessing climate-driven glacial retreat, snow-cover reduction and GLOF risks: implications for water resource management amid rising global temperatures and CO2

Abstract

Context The consequences of climate change, including alterations in snow and glacier patterns and rising temperatures, pose a risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which can have cross-border impacts, leading to the loss of life and property downstream. Aims This research focused on the assessment of changes in snow cover within Chitral district imposed by temperature increase. Methods ArcGIS and Origin programs were used in this research to study the glacier pattern of Chitral. Results Therer was a significant increase of 266.7% in urban development and an expansion of 135.9 km2 in agricultural areas within this remote mountainous region. The findings of the study show that in the year 2000, >51.6% of Chitral district’s total land was covered by snow during early winter. However, this coverage drastically declined to ~6.8% by 2008. Across the initial two 4-year periods, ~44.7% (5694.6 km2) of the glaciated area transitioned to barren rock, whereas the overall reduction in snow-covered areas accounted for ~43.3% (5514.6 km2). Conclusion Owing to the increasing stress on freshwater resources, it is essential to conduct thorough analyses and monitoring of snow patterns to ensure sustainable freshwater availability and effective environmental risk management. Implications This study emphasises the critical consequences of climate-driven glacial retreat, waning snow cover and increased risks of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) for the management of water resources with the rise in global CO2 and temperatures levels. These changes threaten the timing and availability of water supply, with impacts on agriculture, ecosystem and hydropower. Effective adaptation measures and sustainable management practices are crucial to alleviate these risks and ensure water security in a warming world.