Assessing climate change vulnerability and its implications for ecosystem service provision: a spatial modelling case study in Queensland, Australia

The ecosystem plays a crucial role in mitigating climate change and protecting the environment. This study employs GIS technology to conduct an in-depth analysis of the current status of Queensland's ecosystem and develops a Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) model based on six sub-factors. These sub-factors include the Exposure Index (Mean surface temperature and precipitation), the Sensitivity Index (Population density, Building density, and Proximity to forests and nature reserves), and the Adaptive Capacity Index (Nighttime light radiation). The findings indicate that the CCVI value is lowest in the southeastern coastal region of Queensland, suggesting that this area is less vulnerable to climate change. However, other coastal areas and the far western inland regions exhibit higher CCVI values, indicating greater climate vulnerability. These areas require attention and the implementation of appropriate measures. By deepening our understanding of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, we can formulate effective policies and measures to promote sustainable development and mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on the region. This study holds significant practical implications for guiding ecological planning and management decisions in the area.

ABSTRACT: Climate change is altering environments where rare plants grow. Assessing species' vulnerability to climate change is important for organizations responsible for managing natural areas and conserving rare species. We assessed the climate change vulnerability of 34 rare plant taxa from the western United States using two methods: NatureServe's Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) and one based on Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) using Maxent. Of the eight taxa categorized as Extremely Vulnerable by the CCVI, five show significant future loss in each of three SDM measures: change in suitable area, suitable area overlap, and habitat suitability in their present location. Both the CCVI and SDM are important tools to assess climate change vulnerability; each method has complementary strengths that can help land managers make decisions. Here we present examples of how land managers can use SDM and the CCVI in combination to assess climate change vulnerability, to inform rare plant management d...

Ecosystem services across contrasting forested landscapes in Queensland's Wet Tropics Bioregion: contemporary patterns, processes and likely future trends under a changing climate

International and national organizations have focused on two major policy responses to address climate change. They focus on reducing the emission of greenhouse gases to slow down the rate of change and increasing the coping capacity of countries, sectors and communities. Furthermore, rapid and unplanned urbanization, poverty, unemployment, lack of alternate housing opportunities, social and economic exclusion of migrating rural poor and the need to be located close to urban resources and opportunities, have resulted in the increasing number of urban poor population with informal slum settlements. Therefore, accessing the climate change vulnerability of the informal urban slum settlements of Suklagandaki Municipality was the main objective of this research. It explored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability index by surveying 89 households from four different places in Suklagandaki Municipality. The Livelihood Vulnerability Index - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (LVI-IPCC) included eleven major dimensions under exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity condition. The analysis was based on indices constructed from thirty-four indicators. Results indicated that Maalebagar-8 was most vulnerable and Ward-2 area was least vulnerable with the value in the range of moderate vulnerability. Both National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) and Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA) are oriented toward addressing climate hazards and overlook sociopolitical and underlying causes of vulnerability and lack a process to identify and address the most vulnerable communities especially the urban slum. The outcome of this study will be helpful for developing climate change and disaster management policies and programs for similar urban settlements in the future.

Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.

Purpose – The concept of vulnerability in climate change literature is underpinned by numerous theoretical contributions across different disciplines leading to disparate understandings of what climate change vulnerability entails, as well as different methodological frameworks for assessment. This multiplicity of contributions helped not only to frame and shape different understandings of vulnerability but also to define the conceptual and analytical elements considered as critical in any climate change vulnerability assessment. The purpose of this paper is to review the literature on climate change vulnerability and explore and synthesize those conceptual and analytical aspects considered fundamental in a vulnerability assessment in climate change. Design/methodology/approach – Drawing on existing literature on climate change vulnerability and vulnerability assessment frameworks, the paper provides a review of the conceptual elements regarded as critical in integrated assessments of climate change vulne...

Assessing social values attributed to ecosystem services based on the Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES) model helps ecosystems to provide services sustainably, including land and forest products and non-material services. Currently, urbanization has accelerated the deterioration of rural environments, which affects the supply of social values for rural ecosystem services. How to scientifically assess the social values for ecosystem services in rural areas remains to be studied. In addition, there are significant differences in the perceptions of social value among stakeholder groups. Therefore, this study aims to provide a complete and systematic approach to identify the social value of complex and specific rural ecosystem services and to fill the gap in the research of perceived differences among stakeholder groups in rural areas. On the basis of building environmental raster datasets on a village scale, this research applies the SolVES model to evaluate social values in the Paifang rural community. Results show that aesthetic, health care, recreation, and biodiversity values are highly regarded in rural areas. The normalized difference vegetation index, the distance to rural settlements, the distance to tourist attractions, and the distance to agricultural production spaces can improve the evaluation accuracy, and the level of social values can be predicted by certain environmental variables. The spatial distribution of social values and the degree of attention paid to the biodiversity value, and the trade-off between the aesthetic and biodiversity value are the main perception differences between villagers and tourists. This research contributes to ecological construction and sustainable development in rural areas.

The purpose of this study was to compare the results of climate change prospect and vulnerability assessment and the awareness of those by public officials and citizens at Yeongwol county, Gangwon province where experiencing the most climate change vulnerability. Data of 12 meteorological categories such as mean temperature at Yeongwol weather station from 1995 to 2013 were analyzed. Climate change vulnerability was assessed with 29 sub-categories in 6 categories (health, emergency/disaster, agriculture, forestry, water management, ecosystem) of National Institute of Environment Research’s LCCGIS (2013). The awareness of climate change and its vulnerability was surveyed with 154 citizens and 130 officials at Yeoungwol county. The climate change prospect and its vulnerability was similar to the actual climate change effect. However, the awareness of climate change was different between some officials and citizens. The results of this study would be base data for the Yeoungwol county’s future climate change adaptation poicy making.

Comparing instrumental and deliberative paradigms underpinning the assessment of social values for cultural ecosystem services

Climate change issue is the global concern of the present day. The present study attempts to assess the vulnerability of the community due to climate change for which Chiti area of Besisahar Municipality from Lamjung district of Nepal was selected as the study area. The climate change vulnerability was assessed using the Long Term Research Program (LTRP). The long term climate change vulnerability household surveys from 2014 baseline data to 2016, 2017 and 2019 data were analysed in this study. This study adapted IPCC (2001) methodology i.e. also used by C4 EcoSolutions on their baseline climate change vulnerability assessment. This is a bottom-up, integrative approach that considers both physical and social dimensions at a local level. Consequently, vulnerability is best understood as a function of three components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Exposure to climate change vulnerability is calculated with sum of changes in temperature, changes in rainfall patterns, changes in rainfall intensity, drought episodes and flooding events. Sensitivity is calculated based on slope failures, soil fertility, changes in natural environment (i) soil cover; ii) levels of river sedimentation; iii) water salinity; iv) river ecosystems; v) forest size; and vi) the presence of invasive species), economic dependency level, irrigation facilities and livelihood sources. The major finding is that Chiti has been facing climate change since last decade and it is found severely vulnerable due to climate change. There is an urgent need of improvement on climate change adaptive capacity which could result of awareness, information on climate change and adaptation, surplus production and change in agricultural practices. The present study has used awareness score based on conceptual awareness, experiential awareness, and engagement of household to talk about climate change and adaptation. The Long Term Research Approach is appropriate to assess climate change vulnerability in community level. Climate change awareness is one of the major components to reduce vulnerability to climate change in the research area. This is a post adaptation vulnerability analysis of local community which supports climate change vulnerability adaptation policy.

A growing number of health authorities around the world are conducting climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments; however, few explore impacts and adaptations related to mental health. We argue for an expanded conceptualization of health that includes both the physiological and psychological aspects of climate change and health. Through a review of the global literature on mental health and climate change, this analytical review explores how mental health can be integrated into climate change and health vulnerability assessments and concludes with recommendations for integrating mental health within climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments.

As a response to climate change, South Korea has established its third National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (2021–2025) alongside the local governments’ plans. In this study, proxy variables in 22 sub-watersheds of the Nakdong River, Korea were used to investigate climate exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and non-point pollution in sub-watersheds, a climate change vulnerability index (CCVI) was established, and the vulnerability of each sub-watershed in the Nakdong River was evaluated. Climate exposure was highest in the Nakdong Estuary sub-watershed (75.5–81.7) and lowest in the Geumhogang sub-watershed (21.1–28.1). Sensitivity was highest (55.7) in the Nakdong Miryang sub-watershed and lowest (19.6) in the Habcheon dam sub-watershed. Adaptive capacity and the resulting CCVI were highest in the Geumhogang sub-watershed (96.2 and 66.2–67.9, respectively) and lowest in the Wicheon sub-watershed (2.61 and 18.5–20.4, respectively), indicating low and high vulnerabilities to climate change, respectively. The study revealed that the high CCVI sensitivity was due to adaptive capacity. These findings can help establish rational climate change response plans for regional water resource management. To assess climate change vulnerability more accurately, regional bias can be prevented by considering various human factors, including resources, budget, and facilities.

Mixture mitigates the effect of climate change on the provision of relevant ecosystem services in managed Pinus pinea L. forests

Human demand for various ecosystem services continues to increase. The previous studies focused mainly on using economic methods to assess ecosystem service values, but few studies took social attributes and spatial heterogeneity into consideration. In this paper, we selected Wusong Paotaiwan Wetland Forest Park in Shanghai as the study area, and used Social Values for Ecosystem services (SolVES) model to assess the social values of several ecosystem services, such as aesthetic, biodiversity, cultural, recreation, etc. The results showed that the "hotspots" were situated in the places which were close to the water landscape with a broad vision such as the lawn park, Wusong Fort memorial square and waterfront observation deck. Aesthetic, historic, biodiversity, cultural, recreation and therapeutic values were the visitors' preference values. Visitors' prefe-rences could be influenced by the water landscape and the roads significantly. The value indexes of aesthetic, biodiversity, recreation and therapeutics had a significant negative correlation with the distance to water (DTW) and the value indexes of aesthetic and therapeutics had a significant negative correlation with the distance to roads (DTR). Visit frequency could influence visitors' attitudes and preferences towards biodiversity and therapeutics. SolVES had the potential to explicitly assess the social values of ecosystem services at a small scale.

Human activities are placing increasing pressure on Earth’s systems and finite natural resources. Climate change alters the provision of ecosystem services and natural capital, so innovative strategies are needed to adapt to these impacts. However, the formulation and implementation of such strategies is hindered by the substantial uncertainty involved in projections of climate change and the impacts this will have. This is confounded by the uncertain impacts of other drivers of change (such as varying demand and commodity prices), which can alter the demand for ecosystem service provision. To add to this challenge, ecosystem services and natural capital assets are not independent of each other, so policies targeting the provision of an individual ecosystem service (such as food production) need to consider the potential impacts they may have on other ecosystem services. I addressed this problem by developing and evaluating strategies to manage multiple ecosystem services under uncertain global drivers of change. In chapter 2 I conducted a systematic literature review of climate change impacts on ecosystem services and found that the impact of climate change on most types of services was predominantly negative, but varied across services, drivers of change, and assessment methods. Although uncertainty was usually incorporated into assessments, there were substantial gaps in the sources of uncertainty included. In addition, relatively few studies integrated decision making, and even fewer studies aimed to include multiple drivers in decisions or identify solutions that were robust to uncertainty. I then addressed decision making under climate change using a case study of conservation planning for coastal wetlands and the ecosystem services they provide under sea level rise in chapters 3 and 4. The expansion of coastal developments can prevent potential landward wetland migration, exacerbating wetland loss as sea levels rise. Pre-emptive planning to set aside key coastal areas for wetland migration is therefore critical for the long-term preservation of species habitat and ecosystem services. In chapter 3 I show that the opportunity cost of preserving wetlands is likely to be much higher under sea level rise than under current sea levels. Nonetheless, payments for ecosystem services were able to alleviate these costs, but even this was hampered with higher rates of sea level rise. I then explicitly incorporated uncertainty in sea level rise projections and modelling of wetland change into a novel problem formulation in chapter 4. I integrated a risk-sensitive resource allocation framework from economics, Modern Portfolio Theory, with a conservation planning framework. This approach allows the selection of a complementary set of connected sites that met a set of conservation objectives whilst hedging the risk of different climate change scenarios and associated uncertainties. I found that planning for specific projections of sea level rise was a relatively high risk strategy, even when planning for the most severe impacts, compared to the risk-sensitive planning approach. Where multiple ecosystem services trade-off against each other, management strategies are needed to balance the relative provision of each ecosystem service, whilst also accounting for different global change scenarios. I exemplified this situation in chapter 5 by using an integrated modelling approach to assess the impact of climate change, fire, and global economic drivers on the profitability and effectiveness of management actions for livestock production and greenhouse gas regulation in the tropical savannas of northern Australia. Emerging strategies, such as changing fire management practices or nitrate supplementation, were able to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but they came with financial costs. However, the growing urgency to abate emissions under some global change scenarios resulted in prices for carbon that compensated for these costs in some cases. I conclude that innovative methods are vital to successfully adapt the management of ecosystem services to the impacts of climate change and associated complexities. Although the application of such approaches are challenging, ignoring the future impacts of global change can result in the inefficient allocation of resources for climate adaptation and suboptimal management outcomes. Ideally, decision making should also incorporate deep uncertainty and ecosystem service flows to beneficiaries. However, no individual assessment or project can include every complexity, so future research should focus on which drivers, processes, and uncertainties should be prioritised for inclusion in decision making.