Abstract
Usually, megacities expand without proper planning in a context of demographic growth and are increasingly dependent on the natural resources related to the occupied area. This is a major challenge for the sustainable management of these territories, justifying the need for a better knowledge of land use/land cover (LULC) distribution and characteristics to observe spatial anthropogenic dynamics. In this study, the Bogotá river basin and the Bogotá megacity were analyzed as a case study. The main objective of this work was to analyze the historical LULC dynamics from 1985 to 2014. Reliable forecasting scenarios were developed using the Land Change Modeler to support sustainable management and planning. Results show an expansion of the Bogotá megacity toward the Northeast and an increase of urban areas within the basin. These changes implied a loss of 58% of forest surface, a strategic ecosystem, from 1985 to 2014. This dynamic is expected to continue, with a 50% increase of urban areas between 2012 to 2050, thus the megacity and neighbor cities potentially become an “urban continuum”. A replacement of crop and pasture lands near the city is expected, even though Bogotá lands are among the best agricultural lands in the Andean region of Colombia.
Highlights
The world population is 7700 million inhabitants, of which 54% live in cities
Buenos Aires, Rio de Janeiro, Lima. and Bogotá are projected as megacities under development. They are all characterized by the strong influence of their metropolitan area, which creates polycentric spatial growth dynamics with patterns associated with less defined networks and frontiers
With the overall aim to support policy-makers facing the urban management challenge in an efficient manner, this study investigates the spatial land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics in the Bogotá river basin and, in particular, the influence of Bogotá megacity
Summary
The world population is 7700 million inhabitants, of which 54% live in cities. The organization that officially manages the Bogotá river [17] states that this pressure will continue increasing environmental impacts and natural risks related to flooding, as some naturally flooded areas have recently been urbanized This situation is even more critical, as the Bogotá urban area is interleaved with a complex fluvial network that crosses the city. This research will inform on the development of the Bogotá megacity with the estimation of the expansion of artificial areas over the natural and agricultural areas within the river basin This new knowledge will feed the urban management tools, the so-called “Plan de Ordenamiento Territorial” (POT), and better support land management. TThhee hhiissttoorriiccaall aannaallyyssiiss ooff LLUUCCLL aasswweellllaassrreessuultlstsoofffoforereccaasstitninggsscceennaarrioiossaarreeppreresseennteteddinin SSeecctitoionn33, ,fofocucusisninggoonnththeeexexppaannsisoionnooffuurbrbaannaarereaassaannddththeeininflfuluenenceceoonnooththererlalnandduusesse.s.BBaaseseddoonn reresusultlstsoobbtatainineeddfrforommththeesismimuulalatitoionnss, ,ssppeeccifiifcicfifninddininggssaarerehhigighhlilgighhteteddssinincceeththeeyyccaannbbeeuusesefuful lfoforr ppoolilciycy-m-makakininggmmidid-l-olonngg-t-etremrm
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