Assessing and mapping maritime transportation risk based on spatial fuzzy multi-criteria decision making: A case study in the South China sea

Abstract

Maritime transportation poses various risks that may lead to the loss of life and property damage. This paper presents a spatial fuzzy multi-criteria evaluation approach for assessing and mapping maritime transportation risk by combining geospatial techniques and multi-criteria decision making. Fourteen criteria in three risk component categories (hazard, vulnerability and exposure, and mitigation capacity) were selected for use and converted into spatial layers using geospatial techniques. Risk component maps were created by weighting the indices according to a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. A risk map was then produced by integrating the hazard, vulnerability and exposure, and mitigation capacity risk component maps. The South China Sea was used to illustrate the proposed methodology. The spatial variation of risk was characterized by identifying zones of risk (i.e., very high, high, medium, low, and very low), and the results were confirmed by historical accident data. A sensitivity analysis was further conducted to examine the robustness of the results. These findings may help related authorities to develop effective mitigation plans and strategies to improve navigation safety.