Abstract
Abstract : Two probability distributions are currently used to set the load list quantity for submarine tenders. The Fleet Ballistic Missile (FBM) tender load list model uses the Poisson distribution if the quarterly average demand is less than or equal to one; otherwise, the Normal distribution is used. The conventional AS model uses the Normal distribution with a range cut (currently a quarterly average demand of .5) to set the load list quantity. There is little documentation to validate the use of either the Normal or Poisson distributions. Summary statistics, box plots, and goodness-of-fit tests were used to evaluate the validity of the distributions currently in use and to hypothesize more appropriate distributions. Demand was analyzed at the aggregate, tender and item level. Since AS load lists are hull tailored, a test of homogeneity was conducted at the item level to determine if the same distribution can be used across all tenders. Load lists were built from the proposed distributions and compared to the benchmarks. Effectiveness was measured in terms of requisitions and units satisfied. The impact on range and cost was also evaluated.
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