Abstract
Only a few scientific research studies referencing extremely low flow conditions have been conducted in Greece so far. Forecasting future low stream flow rate values is a crucial and decisive task when conducting drought and watershed management plans by designing construction plans dealing with water reservoirs and general hydraulic works capacity, by calculating hydrological and drought low flow indices, and by separating groundwater base flow and storm flow of storm hydrographs, etc. The Artificial Neural Network modeling simulation method generates artificial time series of simulated values of a random (hydrological in this specific case) variable. The present study produces artificial low stream flow time series of part of 2015. We compiled an Artificial Neural Network to simulate low stream flow rate data, acquired at a certain location of the entirely regulated, urban stream, which crosses the roads junction formed by Iokastis road and an Chrisostomou Smirnis road, Agios Loukas residential area, Kavala city, Eastern Macedonia & Thrace Prefecture, NE Greece, during part of July, August, and part of September 2015, until 12 September 2015, using a 3-inches conventional portable Parshall flume. The observed data were plotted against the predicted one and the results were demonstrated through interactive tables by providing us the ability to effectively evaluate the ANN model simulation procedure performance. Finally, we plotted the recorded against the simulated low stream flow rate data by compiling a log-log scale chart, which provides a better visualization of the discrepancy ratio statistical performance metrics and calculated further statistic values featuring the comparison between the recorded and the forecasted low stream flow rate data.
Highlights
Low flow regimes in rivers and streams are of paramount importance to the ecological conditions of any land surface hydrological feature
Another type of low flow analysis, probability distribution analysis, was performed in the past analyzing the observed data collected at the same gauging station between 25 July 2015 and 11 September 2015, which revealed that Dagum (4P) demonstrated the highest final goodness of fit obtained score based, simultaneously, on all available (Anderson-Darling, Chi-Squared, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov) goodness of fit criteria [2]
Another type of low flow analysis, probability distribution analysis, was performed in the past by analyzing the observed data collected at another, with similar features, gauging station, located at the outlet of Perigiali Stream, Kavala City, NE Greece, NE Mediterranean Basin, between 14 May 2016 and 31 July 2016, which reveals that Pearson type 6 (3P) demonstrated the highest final goodness-of-fit obtained score based, simultaneously, on all available (Anderson-Darling, Chi-Squared, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov) goodness-of-fit criteria [3]
Summary
Low flow regimes in rivers and streams are of paramount importance to the ecological conditions of any land surface hydrological feature. Low flow analysis and forecasting is fundamental when building works along watercourses (e.g., dams, reservoirs, water deviation channels for irrigation purposes, etc.) and for watercourse rehabilitation plans regarding which a knowledge of hydrological fluctuation is of fundamental importance in designing sustainable rehabilitation works. Another type of low flow analysis, probability distribution analysis, was performed in the past analyzing the observed data collected at the same gauging station between 25 July 2015 and 11 September 2015, which revealed that Dagum (4P) demonstrated the highest final goodness of fit obtained score based, simultaneously, on all available (Anderson-Darling, Chi-Squared, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov) goodness of fit criteria [2]. The Monte-Carlo simulation method, as another type of low flow analysis, was employed to define, by generating multiple attempts, the anticipated value of a random (hydrological in the specific case) variable to the above mentioned gauging station, located at the outlet of Perigiali Stream, Kavala City, NE Greece, NE Mediterranean Basin, between 14 May 2016 and 31 July 2016 [6]
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