Are extreme high temperatures at low or high latitudes more likely to inhibit the population growth of a globally distributed aphid?

The ongoing global warming tends to reduce Larix decidua radial growth and ring wood density at the bottom of an elevational gradient in the French Alps, while it has a less marked effect at the top. The ongoing climate warming affects most tree species across their biogeographic distribution range. The bottom and the top of an elevational gradient are appropriate environments to observe the effect of climate warming in contrasted temperature conditions. To retrospectively study the effect of the ongoing climate warming on Larix decidua trees located in warm and cold conditions, i.e., at the bottom (1200 m) and the top (2300 m) of an elevational gradient, respectively. Dendroecological analysis of two groups of Larix decidua trees located at very low (1200 m) and very high (2300 m) elevations. Construction of climatic response curves for annual ring variables. Decomposition of the variance of the response models into their high and low frequency components. At Briancon, in the French Alps, the increase of the daily maximum temperature during the last 50 years is already almost 3 °C for the March–October period. The results reveal contrasted behaviors at both ends of the investigated elevational gradient. Basal area increment, ring width, and their earlywood and latewood components increase or level off at the top of the gradient, while they all strongly decrease at the bottom. At the bottom, the low frequency warming effect explains the recent ring width decrease, with no influence of the high frequency temperature variation. At the top, both the low frequency warming effect and the high frequency temperature effect explain each about half of the ring width variation encompassed by the model. Latewood density displays the same trend as ring width, while earlywood density decreases at both ends of the gradient. Such opposed trends of the radial growth time trends between the top (2300 m) and the bottom (1200 m) of the gradient reflects the respectively favorable and unfavorable effects of climate warming at such ends of this Larix decidua elevational gradient. We propose that the strong ring width decrease observed at the warmer bottom announces a coming dieback. The corresponding wood density decrease will affect wood hydraulic properties in a way that is unclear.

ABSTRACTChanges in temperature extremes can be linked to mean temperature changes and variability. This study aims to quantify observed trends in mean and extreme temperature values and to analyse the relationship between mean and extreme temperatures in mainland China, based on daily data from 1960 to 2015. This is the first analysis undertaken of the relationship between mean and extreme temperatures in mainland China. Based on the 95th and 99th percentiles of daily Tmax and the 5th and 1st percentiles of daily Tmin, warm days (TX95p), hot days (TX99p), cold nights (TN05p), and very cold nights (TN01p) were defined. The results showed the following: (1) large increasing tendencies of TX95p and TX99p nearly all occurred in locations where mean temperature had substantially increased, and large decreasing tendencies of TN05p were more probably at locations of warming in mainland China; (2) the rise of mean temperature significantly increased the frequency of TX95p and TX99p, and decreased the frequency of TN05p, which indicates a simple shift of the entire distribution towards a warmer climate and greater potential risk of heat waves in the future. The likelihood of occurrence of TX95p and TX99p increased by about 3 and 1 day, respectively, and the occurrence of TN05p was reduced by about 4 days with a mean temperature increase of 1 °C, but the occurrence of TN01p was hardly affected, indicating increased variability of Tmin temperatures; and (3) the mean and extreme temperatures increased with the urbanization rate in China, and advanced phenologies and unaffected frequency of very cold nights (TN01p) could pose more potential risk of frost and freeze injury to crops in China in the future.

Modelling the thermal response of permafrost terrain to right-of-way disturbance and climate warming

Spring phenology is a key indicator of the terrestrial ecosystems’ response to climate change. However, most phenological studies only focus on the analysis of the average date of a particular phenological event in tree populations, and largely overlook the variability of this date within the populations, resulting in large uncertainties in projecting phenological change and the stability of community under ongoing climate warming. Here, we constructed a model able to simulate the within-population variability (WPV) of budburst dates in tree populations using budburst data observed from 2000 to 2021, and we used the model to evaluate the response of WPV to climate warming in five temperate deciduous tree species (Carpinus betulus, Quercus petraea, Fraxinus excelsior, Fagus sylvatica and Castanea sativa). The WPV model received support for all five species, with a RMSE of 8.6 ± 2.9 days over validation data, which is near the observation resolution. Retrospective simulations using past climate suggested that the beginning (i.e., date at which 20 % trees burst their buds, BP20) and end (i.e., date at which 80 % trees burst their buds, BP80) of budburst in the population advanced over 1961-2021 of 1.3 ± 0.4 days decade-1 and 1.4 ± 0.4 days decade -1, as a consequence of climate warming. However, the duration of the budburst period (DurBB, time interval between BP20 and BP80) did not change significantly. Using three climate models, we found BP20 and BP80 to occur later by 3.1 ± 1.3 days decade-1 and 3.8 ± 1.5 days decade-1 in populations of Quercus, Fraxinus and Carpinus along the 21st century, which was caused by insufficient chilling accumulation, contrasting with a continuous trend towards earlier budburst by 0.9 ± 0.6 days decade-1 and 0.5 ± 0.7 days decade-1 in Fagus and Castanea. Importantly, the duration of the budburst period (DurBB) in the population was projected to increase in the future, especially for Quercus and Fraxinus, due to a stronger temperature sensitivity of the end of budburst in the population. Furthermore, our model suggests modifications at the community scale, with shifts in the budburst sequence for some species. Our work provides a novel model, simulating the continuity of budburst in tree populations in spring. This phenological model can be adapted to the study of other stages of the tree phenological cycle, which are all of continuous nature in tree populations (e.g., leaf senescence, wood formation etc.). Furthermore, based on this approach, our study projects a delayed, and extended duration of budburst in the population under climate warming for two out of the five species investigated. If confirmed in natura, these differential changes in budburst duration could influence the competition among species in forest communities.

Floral nectar is a vital resource for pollinators, thus having a very important role in ecosystem functioning. Ongoing climate warming could have a negative effect on nectar secretion, particularly in the Mediterranean, where a strong temperature rise is expected. In turn, decreased nectar secretion, together with shifts in flowering phenology can disrupt plant–pollinator interactions and consequently affect the entire ecosystem. Under fully controlled conditions, we tested how temperature influenced nectar secretion (through nectar volume, sugar concentration, sugar content, and number of flowers produced) in six Mediterranean plant species flowering from winter to summer (viz. Asphodelus ramosus, Ballota acetabulosa, Echium plantagineum, Lavandula stoechas, Rosmarinus officinalis, and Teucrium divaricatum). We compared the changes in nectar secretion under temperatures expected by the end of the century and estimated the effect of climate warming on nectar secretion of plants flowering in different seasons. We found a significant effect of temperature on nectar secretion, with a negative effect of very high temperatures in all species. Optimal temperatures for nectar secretion were similar to the mean temperatures in the recent past (1958–2001) during the respective flowering time of each species. Increasing temperatures, however, will affect differently the early-flowering (blooming in winter and early spring) and late-flowering species (blooming in late spring and early summer). Temperature rise expected by the end of the century will shift the average temperature beyond the optimal range for flower production and the sugar produced per plant in late-flowering species. Therefore, we expect a future decrease in nectar secretion of late-flowering species, which could reduce the amount of nectar resources available for their pollinators. Early-flowering plants will be less affected (optimal temperatures were not significantly different from the future projected temperatures), and may in some cases even benefit from rising temperatures. However, as many earlier studies have found that early-flowering species are more prone to shifts in phenology, the plant–pollinator interactions could instead become affected in a different manner. Consequently, climate warming will likely have a distinctive effect on both plant and pollinator populations and their interactions across different seasons.

Understanding the effect of climate warming and technological progress on crop production systems is crucial for developing climate adaptation strategies. This study presents a methodological framework with which to assess the suitability of the double rice cropping system in Southern China and the effects of crop management and climate warming on its distribution. The results indicate that the isolated effects of climate warming have led to the northward and westward expansions of double rice northern limits over the past six decades and an increase in suitable areas by 4.76 Mha. Under the isolated effect of crop management, the northern limits of the medium- and late-maturity double rice changed significantly due to the increased accumulated temperature required caused by varietal replacement and planting date change, which moved an average of 123 and 134 km southward, respectively. A combined scenario analysis indicated that crop management could offset the effects of climate warming and push the northern limits southward, reducing the overall suitable area by 1.31 Mha. Varietal replacement and other crop management methods should also be appropriately considered in addition to climate warming to develop locally adapted agricultural management strategies.

Predicting the effects of climate warming and fire disturbance on forest aboveground biomass is a central task of studies in terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle. The alteration of temperature, precipitation, and disturbance regimes induced by climate warming will affect the carbon dynamics of forest ecosystem. Boreal forest is an important forest type in China, the responses of which to climate warming and fire disturbance are increasingly obvious. In this study, we used a forest landscape model LANDIS PRO to simulate the effects of climate change on aboveground biomass of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, and compared direct effects of climate warming and the effects of climate warming-induced fires on forest aboveground biomass. The results showed that the aboveground biomass in this area increased under climate warming scenarios and fire disturbance scenarios with increased intensity. Under the current climate and fire regime scenario, the aboveground biomass in this area was (97.14±5.78) t·hm-2, and the value would increase up to (97.93±5.83) t·hm-2 under the B1F2 scenario. Under the A2F3 scenario, aboveground biomass at landscape scale was relatively higher at the simulated periods of year 100-150 and year 150-200, and the value were (100.02±3.76) t·hm-2 and (110.56±4.08) t·hm-2, respectively. Compared to the current fire regime scenario, the predicted biomass at landscape scale was increased by (0.56±1.45) t·hm-2 under the CF2 scenario (fire intensity increased by 30%) at some simulated periods, and the aboveground biomass was reduced by (7.39±1.79) t·hm-2 in CF3 scenario (fire intensity increased by 230%) at the entire simulation period. There were significantly different responses between coniferous and broadleaved species under future climate warming scenarios, in that the simulated biomass for both Larix gmelinii and Betula platyphylla showed decreasing trend with climate change, whereas the simulated biomass for Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica, Picea koraiensis and Populus davidiana showed increasing trend at different degrees during the entire simulation period. There was a time lag for the direct effect of climate warming on biomass for coniferous and broadleaved species. The response time of coniferous species to climate warming was 25-30 years, which was longer than that for broadleaf species. The forest landscape in the Great Xing'an Mountains was sensitive to the interactive effect of climate warming (high CO2 emissions) and high intensity fire disturbance. Future climate warming and high intensity forest fire disturbance would significantly change the composition and structure of forest ecosystem.

Land conversion regulates the effects of long-term climate warming on soil micro-food web communities

Effects of climate warming on the timing of flowering and emergence in a tritrophic relationship: plants - bees - parasitoids

Temperature during egg formation and the effect of climate warming on egg size in a small songbird

Although it is well known that insects are sensitive to temperature, how they will be affected by ongoing global warming remains uncertain because these responses are multifaceted and ecologically complex. We reviewed the effects of climate warming on 31 globally important phytophagous (plant‐eating) insect pests to determine whether general trends in their responses to warming were detectable. We included four response categories (range expansion, life history, population dynamics, and trophic interactions) in this assessment. For the majority of these species, we identified at least one response to warming that affects the severity of the threat they pose as pests. Among these insect species, 41% showed responses expected to lead to increased pest damage, whereas only 4% exhibited responses consistent with reduced effects; notably, most of these species (55%) demonstrated mixed responses. This means that the severity of a given insect pest may both increase and decrease with ongoing climate warming. Overall, our analysis indicated that anticipating the effects of climate warming on phytophagous insect pests is far from straightforward. Rather, efforts to mitigate the undesirable effects of warming on insect pests must include a better understanding of how individual species will respond, and the complex ecological mechanisms underlying their responses.

Eutrophication and climate warming are profoundly affecting fish in many freshwater lakes. Understanding the specific effects of these stressors is critical for development of effective adaptation and remediation strategies for conserving fish populations in a changing environment. Ecological niche models that incorporated the individual effects of nutrient concentration and climate were developed for 25 species of fish sampled in standard gillnet surveys from 1,577 Minnesota lakes. Lake phosphorus concentrations and climates were hindcasted to a pre-disturbance period of 1896–1925 using existing land use models and historical temperature data. Then historical fish assemblages were reconstructed using the ecological niche models. Substantial changes were noted when reconstructed fish assemblages were compared to those from the contemporary period (1981–2010). Disentangling the sometimes opposing, sometimes compounding, effects of eutrophication and climate warming was critical for understanding changes in fish assemblages. Reconstructed abundances of eutrophication-tolerant, warmwater taxa increased in prairie lakes that experienced significant eutrophication and climate warming. Eutrophication-intolerant, warmwater taxa abundance increased in forest lakes where primarily climate warming was the stressor. Coolwater fish declined in abundance in both ecoregions. Large changes in modeled abundance occurred when the effects of both climate and eutrophication operated in the same direction for some species. Conversely, the effects of climate warming and eutrophication operated in opposing directions for other species and dampened net changes in abundance. Quantifying the specific effects of climate and eutrophication will allow water resource managers to better understand how lakes have changed and provide expectations for sustainable fish assemblages in the future.

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 全球气候变暖影响植物-传粉者网络的研究进展 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201309102245 作者: 作者单位: 江西省吉安市青原区学苑路井冈山大学生命科学学院 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(31060069, 31360099); 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-07-0385); 江西省自然科学基金项目(2010GZN0129); 江西省高水平学科(生物学) New advances in effects of global warming on plant-pollinator networks Author: Affiliation: College of Life Sciences, Jinggangshan University，Jiangxi Province Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:植物与传粉者间相互作用,构成了复杂的传粉网络。目前,以气候变化为主要特征的全球变暖对植物-传粉者网络的影响备受关注,概述了近年来这方面研究的几个主要热点问题及其进展,和相关研究方法。并在此基础上,提出了气温持续上升背景下,植物-传粉者网络未来的研究趋势。当前研究的主要热点问题有:(1)气候变暖使植物、传粉者的物候发生变化,并通过影响植物的开花时间和传粉者活动时间,导致两者在物候时间上的不同步。(2)气候变暖导致植物、传粉者的群落结构变化,促使其地理分布向更高纬度和更高海拔扩散,这可能潜在的导致两者空间分布的不匹配。(3)植物和传粉者通过增加或减少其丰富度来响应气候变暖,可能导致传粉网络结构特征发生变化。(4)面对气候变暖导致植物和传粉者间物候和地理分布错配所引发的互作改变、甚至解体,传粉网络可通过自身网络结构及快速进化来缓冲和适应。在今后研究中,以下几个问题值得探讨:1)气候变暖对植物-传粉者网络影响的大时空尺度变异模式。2)多因素协同作用对植物-传粉者网络的影响特征。3)全球气候变暖对植物、传粉者物候匹配性影响的机理。 Abstract:The interactions between plants and pollinators result in complex pollination networks. The effects of global climate warming on plant-pollinator networks have attracted extensive attention at present. In this paper, we attempt to introduce several major advances and some new interests in this area. Furthermore, we discussed the future research trends of plant-pollinator networks based on continuously rising temperature. (1) Climate warming makes phenology shift of plants and pollinators by affecting flowering time of plants and activity time of pollinators, which leads to a temporal decoupling of plants and pollinators. (2) Climate warming may cause changes in community structure of plants and pollinators and thus make them distribute to areas in higher latitude and altitude. These changes may result in spatial mismatch of plants and pollinators. (3) Plants and pollinators response to climate warming by increase or decrease its abundance, which may cause changes in structure of pollination networks. (4) The structure and rapid evolution of pollination networks can adapt to the changes or even collapse of interaction between plants and pollinators that result from the phenological and geographical distribution mismatch caused by climate warming. The following contents should be studied in the further research: (1) The effects of climate warming on plant-pollinator networks at large spatiotemporal scales; (2) The effects of multi-factorial synergy on plant-pollinator networks; (3) The mechanism of phenological matching caused by global warming. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

The article presents the results of studying the effects of current climatic warming for both surface and subsurface water runoffs in North-East Russia, where the Main Watershed of the Earth separates it into the Arctic and Pacific continental slopes. The process of climatic warming is testified by continuous weather records during 80-100 years and longer periods. Over the Arctic slope and in the northern areas of the Pacific slope, climatic warming results in a decline in a total runoff of rivers whereas the ground-water recharge becomes greater in winter low-level conditions. In the southern Pacific slope and in the Sea of Okhotsk basin, the effect of climatic warming is an overall increase in total runoff including its subsurface constituents. We believe these peculiar characters of river runoff there to be related to the cryolithic zone environments. Over the Arctic slope and the northern Pacific slope, where cryolithic zone is continuous, the total runoff has its subsurface constituent as basically resulting from discharge of ground waters hosted in seasonally thawing rocks. Warmer climatic conditions favor growth of vegetation that needs more water for the processes of evapotranspiration and evaporation from rocky surfaces in summer seasons. In the Sea of Okhotsk basin, where the cryolithic zone is discontinuous, not only ground waters in seasonally thawing layers, but also continuous taliks and subpermafrost waters participate in processes of river recharges. As a result, a greater biological productivity of vegetation cover does not have any effect on ground-water supply and river recharge processes. If a steady climate warming is provided, a continuous cryolithic zone can presumably degrade into a discontinuous and then into an island-type permafrost layer. Under such a scenario, there will be a general increase in the total runoff and its subsurface constituent. From geoecological viewpoints, a greater runoff will have quite positive effects, whereas some minor negative consequences of it can be successfully prevented.

Effect of acclimation on heat-escape temperatures of two aphid species: Implications for estimating behavioral response of insects to climate warming