Abstract
Abstract. Reanalysis data show an increasing trend in Arctic precipitation over the 20th century, but changes are not homogenous across seasons or space. The observed hydroclimate changes are expected to continue and possibly accelerate in the coming century, not only affecting pan-Arctic natural ecosystems and human activities, but also lower latitudes through the atmospheric and ocean circulations. However, a lack of spatiotemporal observational data makes reliable quantification of Arctic hydroclimate change difficult, especially in a long-term context. To understand Arctic hydroclimate and its variability prior to the instrumental record, climate proxy records are needed. The purpose of this review is to summarise the current understanding of Arctic hydroclimate during the past 2000 years. First, the paper reviews the main natural archives and proxies used to infer past hydroclimate variations in this remote region and outlines the difficulty of disentangling the moisture from the temperature signal in these records. Second, a comparison of two sets of hydroclimate records covering the Common Era from two data-rich regions, North America and Fennoscandia, reveals inter- and intra-regional differences. Third, building on earlier work, this paper shows the potential for providing a high-resolution hydroclimate reconstruction for the Arctic and a comparison with last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models. In general, hydroclimate proxies and simulations indicate that the Medieval Climate Anomaly tends to have been wetter than the Little Ice Age (LIA), but there are large regional differences. However, the regional coverage of the proxy data is inadequate, with distinct data gaps in most of Eurasia and parts of North America, making robust assessments for the whole Arctic impossible at present. To fully assess pan-Arctic hydroclimate variability for the last 2 millennia, additional proxy records are required.
Highlights
Global climate is changing rapidly, largely due to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC, 2013)
According to most climate models, precipitation will continue to increase in the coming century, with the largest changes occurring over the Arctic Ocean (Bintanja and Selten, 2014)
The aim of this review is to summarise the current understanding of Arctic hydroclimate, focusing on the last 2 millennia
Summary
Global climate is changing rapidly, largely due to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC, 2013). Distinct regional differences in the magnitude of observed warming in recent decades are apparent; for example, the Arctic has warmed at more than twice the rate of the global average (Cohen et al, 2014). There are still large uncertainties regarding hydroclimate variability and changes in the hydrological cycle in the Arctic due to incomplete or fragmentary data (Serreze et al, 2000; Screen and Simmonds, 2012). A number of proxies recorded in natural archives, such as ice cores, lake and peat sediments, and tree rings, can provide information on hydroclimate variations in the Arctic. They provide information with different temporal and seasonal resolution.
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