Arabica Coffee Sales Forecasting Using ARIMA Neural Network (Case Study: KOTEM Bondowoso)

Inventory management is an important component of effective business operation. However, many companies face problems regarding reliable accounting and rational use of inventories. The purpose is the research and analysis of directions for the formation of an accounting and analytical system for the management of production stocks. In order to achieve the goal, it is proposed to consider the tools for the formation of an accounting and analytical system for the management of production stocks; define different approaches to inventory management; substantiate the importance of implementing accounting and analytical systems for managing production stocks. These areas will contribute to the improvement of practical aspects of inventory management. The article analyzes an important aspect of modern management at enterprises, in particular the formation of an accounting and analytical system for effective inventory management. The tools that help create such an inventory management system are considered in detail, various approaches to inventory optimization are defined, and the importance of implementing accounting and analytical systems for effective inventory management is substantiated. It has been proven that one of the key goals of the inventory management strategy is to achieve optimization of their structure which can lead to a significant increase in efficiency without increasing the total amount of inventory. To achieve this goal it is advisable to use the proposed algorithm for managing the inventory structure. Effective management of production stocks, taking into account their structure and relying on this model, will allow enterprises to approach this process with greater strategic importance and awareness, which in turn contributes to increased efficiency and competitiveness in the market. For the formation of the accounting and analytical system of management of production stocks, recommendations are highlighted that will contribute to the correct formation of the accounting and analytical system of managing production stocks, which will help reduce the costs of an enterprise, increase efficiency and ensure the proper quality of customer service. It has been proven that the formation of an accounting and analytical system for the management of production stocks is an important task for an enterprise which allows to ensure effective control, optimization and making informed decisions regarding the management of stocks. Such a system helps to increase the competitiveness of an enterprise and ensures its stability in the market. This article is an important source of information for business managers, logistics and inventory management specialists who seek to improve the efficiency of their processes and implement modern accounting and analytical systems for more accurate and strategic inventory management.

This study examines the performance of different hybrid methodologies that combine ARIMA and artificial neural network (ANN) to forecast stock market returns. Two new hybrid ARIMA-ANN models are developed and compared with Zhang’s (2003) model on real data sets and the model performance is evaluated using trading performance measures. The study shows that hybrid models outperform independent models and the hybrid ARIMABP model achieves greater accuracy and provides evidence of superiority of the other hybrid models.

Object. The work is devoted to inventory management and saving the company's resources. Their importance and the need to improve the company's inventory management. The disadvantages and advantages of purchasing material resources and forming warehouse stocks are analyzed. To ensure the effective use of material stocks of enterprises in difficult conditions of instability of the environment of their functioning, it is advisable to use economically sound methods of formation and management of stocks, determination of stock volumes and their cost levels. The inventory management process must be constant and continuous at all stages, starting with the collection and processing of information about identified production needs in inventory and ending with their use. Methods. To solve this scientific problem, the following methods of ABC, XYZ inventory management analysis, PaneCut software were used. Results. Factors affecting the volume of the enterprise's stocks were analyzed. The methodical approach to assessing the effectiveness of the logistics management of the company's stocks has been improved. Approbation of the proposed methodology was carried out at "Preiz" LLC. The improvement of the logistics management of stocks of "Preiz" LLC based on ABC and HYZ methods has been implemented. Implemented software to save costs of material resources. Background. Recommendations for evaluating the efficiency of the company's stock logistics, taking into account its internal interests (providing production needs, minimizing the cost of purchasing and storing stocks) and external interests (satisfying the needs of consumers). Final Conclusions. The work contains practical recommendations aimed at improving the current mechanism of managing the working capital of the enterprise in its production stocks, at regulating the processes of formation and consumption of stocks.

This paper explores the problems and challenges of co-management of beluga and narwhal populations in the Eastern Arctic region of the Northwest Territories. The political and regulatory context of co-management has changed in the last 14 years. Regulations were amended in 1980 and 1990 to limit harvest and the conditions of harvest. The Nunavut Land Claim Settlement Agreement-in-Principle of 1990 created a new framework for wildlife management. The 1990 Supreme Court decision in the Sparrow case was a strong admonition for native involvement in management of their fisheries resources. Canada and Greenland formed a joint commission for conservation and management of shared stocks of narwhals and belugas. The history of Southeast Baffin beluga co-management, our case study, is one of informal and incomplete co-management, because the hunters did not have full participation in the research pertaining to the evaluation of stock status, nor did they have the power to decide on the management of the stock. The decision of Fisheries and Oceans to severely limit beluga hunting created a crisis, which eventually led to the creation of a formal complete beluga co-management committee. We conclude that complete co-management, with full participation of Inuit hunters, is necessary for effective conservation and management of eastern Canadian small whales. Nevertheless, the vast area through which narwhal and beluga populations range, the large number of people and communities that would be involved in such a co-management process and the difficulty in determining stock status are important challenges to co-managers.Key words: Southeast Baffin, Baffin Bay, High Arctic, Greenland, hunters, harvesting, conservation, protection, Nunavut, Sparrow

The provision of an enterprise with production stocks and their rational structure and efficient use determine the continuity of the production process at the enterprise, contribute to the manufacture of the required volume of products, and save money on working capital investment. Therefore, the analysis of availability and efficiency of production stocks is relevant at all stages of production. The study identifies the problems that arise in the course of stock management, which, in particular, include the following: the accurate calculation of cost per unit of products; the high-quality inspection of the actual condition of the stocks stored at warehouses; the selection of an optimal portfolio of contractual obligations for the supply of the stocks; and the selection of economically justified balances at the warehouse. This paper considers the organizational aspects of the analysis of stocks of economic entities and offers the improved flow chart for the organization of an analytical process of stocks that can be used in the stock management process at the enterprise. The model proposed in this paper can be described using the following stages: the forecast of future sales; the calculation of the required quantity of stocks to meet the needs of the forecast demand for manufactured products; the determination of the reserve stock amount and forecast of the volume of purchases of stocks in view of the above mentioned values; the compilation of an order portfolio and analysis of performance of the generated model.In order to improve stock management, the stock-need model is developed at the enterprise, which allows determining the basic need for raw and consumable materials required for the manufacture of a certain type of products to meet the sales needs.

The article studies key problems of Russian trade chains. Foreign publications dealing with product range and stock management in retail trade were analyzed. As a result of the researching the logistic and marketing work of chain trade operators of FMCG sector in Russia certain trends were found, which determine the vector of their development for the next 5-10 years and at the same time act as the catalyst of their current problems. To investigate the key problems in detail the results of projects on business process re-engineering and optimization of product stock carried out within 15 years were used. As a result two principle problems were found typical of the majority of retailers: the low turnover of stocks leading to overstock and out-of-stock of the most popular and profitable products in outlets, i.e. trade branches or affiliates (regional storehouses). It should be mentioned that these problems arise in trade chains together, thus the global problem can be formulated in the following way: continuous out-of-stock with overstock. It means that today trade chains are facing the target objective - to shape a unique product rage for each outlet or even for a concrete customer and to meet the arising demand with the optimum level of stock and costs. In the process of practical realization of projects on stock optimization in trade chains the authors developed a certain algorithm of solving the project problems and it was found out that external conditions that were not investigated could cause negative results of project implementation.

This research discusses the community mindset towards local products in Gelok Mulya village in the development of industrial areas. The background of this study is some people who feel a mindset towards local products. Many supporting factors that must be fulfilled are the core problems for the people's mindset. Therefore, only a small proportion of people have a good mindset on local products in their own regions in industrial areas. This study aims to determine the community towards local products in the village of Gelok Mulya in the development of the industrial area and the factors that affect the mindset of the community towards local products in the village of Gelok Mulya in the development of the industrial area. This type of research is a type of qualitative research using the case study method. Data collection techniques using observation, interviews and documentation conducted on four sources and facilities owned by the community Gelok Mulya. The collected research data is then processed through three stages, namely data reduction, data presentation and drawing conclusions from the processed data. From the research conducted, it is known that the community mindset towards local products in Gelok Mulya village is in the development of industrial areas. Still leads to industry. This can be seen from the enthusiasm of public trust to be able to develop local blacksmith products. In the current industrial area, the parties are still improving their human resources and facilities in order to continue to increase a good mindset in industrial estates.
 Abstrak
 Penelitian ini membahas tentang Mindset Masyarakat terhadap Produk Lokal di desa Gelok Mulya dalam Perkembangan Kawasan Industri. Kajiannya dilatarbelakangi oleh sebagian masyarakat yang merasa mindset terhadap produk lokal. Banyak faktor pendukung yang harus dipenuhi menjadi masalah inti untuk mindset masyarakat. Oleh karena itu, hanya sebagian kecil masyarakat yang mampunyai mindset baik pada produk likal di daerah sendiri dalam kawasan industry. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui Masyarakat terhadap Produk Lokal di desa Gelok Mulya dalam Perkembangan Kawasan Idustri.dan faktor yang mempengaruhi mindset Masyarakat terhadap Produk Lokal di desa Gelok Mulya dalam Perkembangan Kawasan Idustri. Jenis penelitian ini merupakan jenis penelitian kualitatif dengan menggunakan metode studi kasus. Teknik pengumpulan data dengan menggunakan observasi, wawancara dan dukumentasi yang dilakukan terhadap empat orang narasumber dan fasilitas yang dimiliki masyarakat Gelok Mulya. Data penelitian yang terkumpul kemudian diolah melalui tiga tahapan, yaitu reduksi data, penyajian data dan menarik kesimpulan dari data yang telah diolah. Dari penelitian yang dilakukan, diketahui bahwa Mindset Masyarakat terhadap Produk Lokal di desa Gelok Mulya dalam Perkembangan Kawasan Idustri. Masih mengarah ke industri. Hal ini dapat dilihat dari antusiasme kepercayaan masyarakat untuk dapat mengembangkan produk lokal pandai besi. Dalam kawasan industry saat ini, pihak masih terus meningkatkan sumber daya manusia dan fasilitas yang dimiliki guna terus meningkatkan mindset yang baik dalam kawasan industri.

Construction project control attempts to obtain real-time as-built schedule information and to eliminate project delays by effectively enhancing dynamic schedule control and management. Suitable platforms for enhancing an as-built schedule visually during the construction phase are necessary and important for general contractors. As the application of building information modeling (BIM) becomes more common, schedule management integrated with the BIM approach becomes essential to enhance visual construction management implementation for the general contractor during the construction phase. To enhance visualization of the updated as-built schedule for the general contractor, this study presents a novel system called the Construction BIM-assisted Schedule Management (ConBIM-SM) system for general contractors in Taiwan. The primary purpose of this study is to develop a web ConBIM-SM system for the general contractor to enhance visual as-built schedule information sharing and efficiency in tracking construction as-built schedule. Finally, the ConBIM-SM system is applied to a case study of a commerce building project in Taiwan to verify its efficacy and demonstrate its effectiveness during the construction phase. The advantages of the ConBIM-SM system lie in improved project control and management efficiency for general contractors, and in providing BIM-assisted as-built schedule tracking and management, to access the most current as-built schedule information through a web browser. The case study results show that the ConBIM-SM system is an effective visual as-built schedule management platform integrated with the BIM approach for general contractors in a construction project.

This paper analyzes the relationships between the productivity of stocks and the return on assets of milk processing companies. Productivity of stocks was measured as the Days Sales of Inventory (DSI) for materials, intermediate products, work-in-progress, finished products and commodities, and as the DSI for total stocks. The study was based on corporate micro-data from 2007–2016 retrieved from the EMIS database. Based on panel regression models, it was concluded that an improvement in stock management efficiency, measured with the Days Sales of Inventory, is positively correlated to the return on assets of milk processing companies. Although it was considerably shorter in the milk sector than in the entire food industry throughout the study period, it grew longer each year. This evolution means a deterioration in the efficiency of stock management of finished products which, in the long run, may adversely affect the financial performance of milk producers. The parameters of the estimated regression models clearly confirm it is reasonable to reduce DSIs.

PurposeContemporary academic research generally discusses positive spillovers that consumption and purchase of local foods/produce may have for consumers, farmers and local economies from which these products come. In a hospitality industry context, local produce can enhance culinary experiences as well as benefit regions and businesses that promote it. However, to what extent are hospitality businesses aware and receptive to the range of local products available? Furthermore, are small hospitality enterprises (SHEs), particularly those near rural areas, actively involved in utilising local products on their menus? And if so, to what extent is this demand driven or an attempt to seek out a unique selling proposition on the part of SHEs? The present paper seeks to answer these questions from the hospitality operators' perspective.Design/methodology/approachA total of 21 SHEs located in the southern United States were interviewed via telephone and face‐to‐face.FindingsDespite their close geographical proximity to farms that grow fresh produce and a near‐by farmers' market open in the summer, SHEs' involvement with local foods in this study is very fragmented. In fact, more respondents are not involved in purchasing local products than those who are, while others are only marginally involved. Furthermore, convenience of direct deliveries by out‐of‐state food distributors and unawareness of existing fresh local produce availability are reasons expressed for not engaging in efforts to buy locally.Research limitations/implicationsThe narrow geographical area chosen and low number of participating businesses in this study may not allow for making generalizations with regards to the findings.Practical implicationsThe dysfunctional nature of the current relationship identified between SHEs and local food producers may be conducive to very unfavourable long‐term impacts for both parties, including lost sales opportunities by not providing fresher, higher quality produce that appeals to increasingly discerning customers.Originality/valueThe present study offers new insights into the relationship between SHEs and local food producers, an area that has been largely neglected in contemporary research.

Engineering Applications of Bio-Inspired Artificial Neural Networks

Share of national food products in retail is a frequent subject of policy debates. Local food is often associated with national security, sustainability, and support of local economy, contributing to value-added production, employment, rural development, and preservation of local food culture. Despite its importance, relevant academic literature about the proportion of national food in retail is basically non-existent. This paper presents a unique study that fills this gap and gives an account of the proportion of the main national food products in the Hungarian retail sector. The study presents a comprehensive picture of the food supply situation of the 10 largest retail chains in Hungary in the second half of 2020 for 16 key product categories (representing 67% of total food sales in value in the country), based on the experience of research that covered the physical examination of nearly 40 thousand individual food products. The study found that 70.85% of the analysed food products were supplied by domestic companies. Proportion of national products was higher for fresh food (meat, milk, perishable meat and milk products, eggs, fruits, and vegetables) and honey, while imports were dominant in higher value-added categories. Domestic chains had 15.37% points more local products in stock than international ones. The exact results can be used for benchmarking between companies and sectors, indicating comparative advantages and disadvantages, and provide solid basis for economic development plans.

A case study was conducted in Iida city, Nagano prefecture, to understand the situation of “local food supply and consumption (chisan-chisho)” focusing on local people's actual usage and concerns for local agricultural products. From the retailers' survey, most kinds of main local agricultural products were available, and local greengrocery supplied seasonal, wild, regionally unique products. From the quantitative survey on local people's behaviors and concerns, a noticeable amount of agricultural products was acquired from subsistence production and gifts. Especially for greengrocery, the neighboring and personal network played important roles for the movement of local products. Whether or not the word “chisan-chisho” is known, local foods were utilized. From the case study with 15 households on the acquisition and usage of food materials, local products supplied more than 70% of all kinds of agricultural products used in one day's meal for farm households, and about 50% for nomfarm households. Subsistence production and gifts supplied various products reflecting interaction with local natural resources and social network of each household, “Local food supply and consumption” in Iida city was not only for consumers to be able to purchase local foods as is generally spoken, but had other important implications such as the existence of interaction with local natural resources and social networks among local people. These findings show the richness of rural life that cannot easily be measured by economic indicators.

Digitalization is rapidly transforming various sectors, including agriculture, and offers new opportunities to promote sustainable development and highlight local uniqueness. In Morocco, a country renowned for its diverse agricultural landscapes and rich culinary heritage, the integration of digital technologies into local production has the potential to transform traditional practices, enhance quality and authenticity, expand market access, and contribute to sustainable development. This research paper aims to explore the interaction between digital technologies and local products in Moroccan agriculture, assess the current state of digital technologies in this context, examine their impact on local production, and identify the various challenges and opportunities associated with their use. By analyzing existing literature, case studies, and available data, this study provides insight into the role of digital technologies in shaping the future of local resources in Moroccan agriculture.

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to identify weaknesses in the internal control of the stock management processes and provide recommendations to improve those weaknesses. The study also analyses whether the current stock management processes are adequately documented and updated regularly.Design/methodology/approachOne company involved in the automotive industry was selected as a case study and its stock management examined, focusing on the processes involved and the reliability of the current inventory system. Data were collected via interviews with the selected staff and document analysis on various financial and non-financial company records.FindingsThe results show that there are loopholes and weaknesses in the current stock management system. This is because of poor technology and a lack of exposure and knowledge of staff involved in the stock management system.Research limitations/implicationsAs this research is based on one company as a study case, generalization must be done with precaution. Access to certain important documents was denied because of the confidentiality.Practical/implicationsThis study will help companies in the automotive sector to improve their stock management process, allowing for more efficient cost control and better services to customers. Specifically, this study identifies weaknesses in the current inventory management and provides recommendations to overcome those weaknesses. This will indirectly prevent fraud and theft and safeguard the cash flow of the company by improving the operation of the procurement and spare parts stock control department.Originality/valueThis study is original, as it focuses on a company that operates in the automotive sector, which is rare in the internal control literature, particularly in developing markets such as Malaysia. It contains examinations of various internal documents that are generally difficult to be accessed by researchers for the publication in an academic journal.