Applications of Bayesian approaches in construction management research: a systematic review

Abstract

PurposeBayesian approaches have been widely applied in construction management (CM) research due to their capacity to deal with uncertain and complicated problems. However, to date, there has been no systematic review of applications of Bayesian approaches in existing CM studies. This paper systematically reviews applications of Bayesian approaches in CM research and provides insights into potential benefits of this technique for driving innovation and productivity in the construction industry.Design/methodology/approachA total of 148 articles were retrieved for systematic review through two literature selection rounds.FindingsBayesian approaches have been widely applied to safety management and risk management. The Bayesian network (BN) was the most frequently employed Bayesian method. Elicitation from expert knowledge and case studies were the primary methods for BN development and validation, respectively. Prediction was the most popular type of reasoning with BNs. Research limitations in existing studies mainly related to not fully realizing the potential of Bayesian approaches in CM functional areas, over-reliance on expert knowledge for BN model development and lacking guides on BN model validation, together with pertinent recommendations for future research.Originality/valueThis systematic review contributes to providing a comprehensive understanding of the application of Bayesian approaches in CM research and highlights implications for future research and practice.