Abstract
ObjectiveTo identify the major ecological drivers for malaria vector density using the structural equation model (SEM) in the Three Gorges Reservoir.MethodAn 11-year longitudinal surveillance of malaria vector as well as its related ecological factors was carried out in the Three Gorges Reservoir. The Delphi method was used to identify associated ecological factors. The structural equation model was repeatedly corrected and improved by the corrected index, combined with the actual situation. The final model was defined by relative simplicity, best fitting as well as the practicality.ResultThe final model indicated that the direct effects of temperature, livestock, humidity, and breeding on the vector were 0.015, −0.228, 0.450, 0.516 respectively, their total effects on the vector were 0.359, −0.112, 0.850, and 0.043 through different pathways.ConclusionSEM was effective and convenient in elucidating the mechanism by which malaria vector dynamics operated in this study. It identified that the breeding had the highest direct effect on vector and played a key role for mediating effect of temperature and humidity.
Highlights
China Yangtze Three Gorges Project (TGP), as one of the biggest hydropower-complex projects in the world, is located at latitude 29u,31u509, longitude 106u209,110u309, including 25 county-level divisions of Chongqing municipality and Hubei province and with the total population of 16 million [1]
structural equation model (SEM) was effective and convenient in elucidating the mechanism by which malaria vector dynamics operated in this study
It identified that the breeding had the highest direct effect on vector and played a key role for mediating effect of temperature and humidity
Summary
China Yangtze Three Gorges Project (TGP), as one of the biggest hydropower-complex projects in the world, is located at latitude 29u,31u509, longitude 106u209,110u309, including 25 county-level divisions of Chongqing municipality and Hubei province and with the total population of 16 million [1]. There was no subtertian malaria after 1960, and the prevalence was controlled by the end of 1980s. No other malaria vectors except An. sinensis existed in the Three Gorges Reservoir based on the published literatures [2]. While the global and regional ecological change is often mediated through complex and large-scale processes, making the links between ecological change and disease difficult to demonstrate scientifically [3], there is a notable paucity of studies to confirm or refute whether, and how, ecological change plays this role. Many factors contribute to our poor understanding of the causes and mechanisms of disease emergence [4]
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