Abstract
Influenza and pneumonia independently lead to high morbidity and mortality annually among the human population globally; however, a glaring fact is that influenza pneumonia coinfection is more vicious and it is a threat to public health. Emergence of antiviral resistance is a major impediment in the control of the coinfection. In this paper, a deterministic mathematical model illustrating the transmission dynamics of influenza pneumonia coinfection is formulated having incorporated antiviral resistance. Optimal control theory is then applied to investigate optimal strategies for controlling the coinfection using prevalence reduction and treatment as the system control variables. Pontryagin's maximum principle is used to characterize the optimal control. The derived optimality system is solved numerically using the Runge–Kutta-based forward-backward sweep method. Simulation results reveal that implementation of prevention measures is sufficient to eradicate influenza pneumonia coinfection from a given population. The prevention measures could be social distancing, vaccination, curbing mutation and reassortment, and curbing interspecies movement of the influenza virus.
Highlights
Clinical evidence points out that infection with a particular combination of pathogens results in an aggravated infection with more severe clinical outcome compared with infection with either pathogen alone [1]. is is specially true for influenza virus and bacterium Streptococcus pneumoniae [2,3,4]
Coinfection resulting from influenza virus and Streptococcus pneumoniae further increases morbidity and mortality and is a major public health concern. ese two pathogens rank among the chief pathogens affecting humans, and their ability to work together presents a major threat to world health [11]
In [14], it is indicated that a strong index of suspicion and additional diagnostic testing may be required for diagnosis and treatment of the infections
Summary
Clinical evidence points out that infection with a particular combination of pathogens results in an aggravated infection with more severe clinical outcome compared with infection with either pathogen alone [1]. is is specially true for influenza virus and bacterium Streptococcus pneumoniae [2,3,4]. Coinfection resulting from influenza virus and Streptococcus pneumoniae further increases morbidity and mortality and is a major public health concern. E model incorporates development of antiviral resistance; individuals infected with influenza wild-type strain progress to the IR class at a rate of b. Ose infected with influenza wild-type strain and those infected with influenza resistant strain can contract secondary bacterial pneumonia at the rate of λ3 with the force of infection of pneumonia being βp(Iwp + IRp). Ose infected with both wild-type influenza strain and pneumonia could develop antiviral resistance and progress to IRp class at a rate of b. Rate of developing antiviral resistance Disease-induced death rates in Iw,IR,Iwp, and IRp classes, respectively.
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