Application of Machine Learning and Multivariate Statistics to Predict Uniaxial Compressive Strength and Static Young’s Modulus Using Physical Properties under Different Thermal Conditions

Abstract

Uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) and the static Young’s modulus (Es) are fundamental parameters for the effective design of engineering structures in a rock mass environment. Determining these two parameters in the laboratory is time-consuming and costly, and the results may be inappropriate if the testing process is not properly executed. Therefore, most researchers prefer alternative methods to estimate these two parameters. This work evaluates the thermal effect on the physical, chemical, and mechanical properties of marble rock, and proposes a prediction model for UCS and ES using multi-linear regression (MLR), artificial neural networks (ANNs), random forest (RF), and k-nearest neighbor. The temperature (T), P-wave velocity (PV), porosity (η), density (ρ), and dynamic Young’s modulus (Ed) were taken as input variables for the development of predictive models based on MLR, ANN, RF, and KNN. Moreover, the performance of the developed models was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2) and mean square error (MSE). The thermal effect results unveiled that, with increasing temperature, the UCS, ES, PV, and density decrease while the porosity increases. Furthermore, ES and UCS prediction models have an R2 of 0.81 and 0.90 for MLR, respectively, and 0.85 and 0.95 for ANNs, respectively, while KNN and RF have given the R2 value of 0.94 and 0.97 for both ES and UCS. It is observed from the statistical analysis that P-waves and temperature show a strong correlation under the thermal effect in the prediction model of UCS and ES. Based on predictive performance, the RF model is proposed as the best model for predicting UCS and ES under thermal conditions.