Application of Combined Models Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition, Deep Learning, and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model for Short-Term Heating Load Predictions

Abstract

Short-term building energy consumption prediction is of great significance for the optimized operation of building energy management systems and energy conservation. Due to the high-dimensional nonlinear characteristics of building heat loads, traditional single machine-learning models cannot extract the features well. Therefore, in this paper, a combined model based on complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), four deep learning (DL), and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models is proposed. The DL models include a convolution neural network, long- and short-term memory (LSTM), bi-directional LSTM (bi-LSTM), and the gated recurrent unit. The CEEMDAN decomposed the heating load into different components to extract the different features, while the DL and ARIMA models were used for the prediction of heating load features with high and low complexity, respectively. The single-DL models and the CEEMDAN-DL combinations were also implemented for comparison purposes. The results show that the combined models achieved much higher accuracy compared to the single-DL models and the CEEMDAN-DL combinations. Compared to the single-DL models, the average coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of variation of the RMSE (CV-RMSE) were improved by 2.91%, 47.93%, and 47.92%, respectively. Furthermore, CEEMDAN-bi-LSTM-ARIMA performed the best of all the combined models, achieving values of R2 = 0.983, RMSE = 70.25 kWh, and CV-RMSE = 1.47%. This study provides a new guide for developing combined models for building energy consumption prediction.