Application of a Σpolycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon model and a logistic regression model to sediment toxicity data based on a species‐specific, water‐only LC50 toxic unit for Hyalella azteca

Abstract

Two models, a sigmapolycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) model based on equilibrium partitioning theory and a logistic-regression model, were developed and evaluated to predict sediment-associated PAH toxicity to Hyalella azteca. A sigmaPAH model was applied to freshwater sediments. This study is the first attempt to use a sigmaPAH model based on water-only, median lethal concentration (LC50) toxic unit (TU) values for sediment-associated PAH mixtures and its application to freshwater sediments. To predict the toxicity (i.e., mortality) from contaminated sediments to H. azteca, an interstitial water TU, calculated as the ambient interstitial water concentration divided by the water-only LC50 in which the interstitial water concentrations were predicted by equilibrium partitioning theory, was used. Assuming additive toxicity for PAH, the sum of TUs was calculated to predict the total toxicity of PAH mixtures in sediments. The sigmaPAH model was developed from 10- and 14-d H. azteca water-only LC50 values. To obtain estimates of LC50 values for a wide range of PAHs, a quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model (log LC50 - log Kow) with a constant slope was derived using the time-variable LC50 values for four PAH congeners. The logistic-regression model was derived to assess the concentration-response relationship for field sediments, which showed that 1.3 (0.6-3.9) TU were required for a 50% probability that a sediment was toxic. The logistic-regression model reflects both the effects of co-occurring contaminants (i.e., nonmeasured PAH and unknown pollutants) and the overestimation of exposure to sediment-associated PAH. An apparent site-specific bioavailability limitation of sediment-associated PAH was found for a site contaminated by creosote. At this site, no toxic samples were less than 3.9 TU. Finally, the predictability of the sigmaPAH model can be affected by species-specific responses (Hyalella vs Rhepoxynius); chemical specific (PAH vs DDT in H. azteca) biases, which are not incorporated in the equilibrium partitioning model; and the uncertainty from site-specific effects (creosote vs other sources of PAH contamination) on the bioavailability of sediment-associated PAH mixtures.