Abstract
To explore the effect of transparent supervision model on the prevention and control of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) nosocomial infection and the value of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in predicting the incidence of CRKP infection. A total of 46,873 inpatients from Jiawang District People's Hospital of Xuzhou between January 2019 and December 2019 (prior to COVID-19 prevention and control) were selected as the preintervention group and 45,217 inpatients from January 2020 to December 2020 (after the COVID-19 prevention and control) as the postintervention group. We performed transparent supervision on CRKP patients detected by the real-time monitoring system for nosocomial infection. Incidence and detection rate of CRKP, utilization rate of special grade hydrocarbon enzyme alkene antibiotics, hand hygiene compliance rate, qualified rate of ATP tests on surface of environmental objects, and execution rate of CRKP core prevention and control were compared between the two groups. Transparent supervision of CRKP-infected patients was conducted daily from January to December 2020, which resulted in the following: (a) the infection rate of CRKP decreased in a fluctuating manner, and the actual value of hydrocarbon alkene use rate was basically the same as the predicted value with an overall decreasing trend; (b) after the intervention, hand hygiene compliance rate increased from 53.30% to 70.24% (P < 0.001) and the ATP qualified rate increased from 53.77% to 92.24% (P < 0.001); (c) the fitted value of the ARIMA model was in good agreement with the actual value. The incidence of CRKP infection and the utilization rate of carbene antibiotics were also in good agreement with the predicted value. The average relative errors were 11% and 10.78%. During the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, the ARIMA model effectively fit and predicted the CRKP infection rate, thereby providing scientific guidance for the prevention and control of CRKP infection. In addition, the transparent supervision intervention model improved the hand hygiene compliance and environmental hygiene qualification rates of medical staff, effectively reducing CRKP cross-infection in the hospital.
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