(Anti)corruption and conditionality in the geopolitical enlargement: Ukraine’s EU accession in comparative perspective

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ABSTRACT Since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, geostrategic urgency has revived EU enlargement, raising fears that speed may erode conditionality. This article argues instead that Ukraine's accession path broadly matches past cases. Ukrainian's corruption levels resemble those of Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia at the start of negotiations and are average among current candidates. Ukraine already possesses anticorruption institutions, which shift conditionality from institutional creation to performance improvement. Drawing on previous work on rule of law EU conditionality, the article emphasises domestic co-ownership: pre-existing institutions, active anticorruption CSOs and mobilised civil society jointly sustain reform. Despite risks of inefficiency and elite backlash, Ukraine's starting conditions are favourable.

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