Análise dos possíveis efeitos das mudanças do clima no cultivo da cana-de-açúcar e do eucalipto no estado do Tocantins

Abstract

In recent years there has been an increase in the cultivation of crops for agroenergy purposes in the state of Tocantins, such as sugarcane and Eucalyptus . Because they require high investment, it is relevant for decision-making, the identification of regions with agro-climatic aptitude that are favorable to the good performance of these crops in the State, and to consider the possible impacts of climate change. Thus, the present study aimed to analyze the possible effects of climate change on the cultivation of agroenergy crops (sugarcane and Eucalyptus) in the Tocantins state. This study analyzed the results of two scientific studies carried out in the State, which elaborated the agroclimatic zoning for sugarcane and Eucalyptus urograndis , which projected the effects of future climate change scenarios on the respective zoning, using the GFDL model, for two different periods. It has been found that, irrespective of future climate change, sugarcane cultivation will require irrigation. Considering the two crops analyzed, the most favorable aptitude classes will reduce significantly according to future emissions scenarios. Soon there will be a need to readjust the management currently employed in sugarcane, and this activity may be economically unviable. However, for the cultivation of Eucalyptus urograndis in this condition, it may not be viable in the Tocantins state.