Abstract
Trend and stationarity analysis conducted for the city center of Eskisehir province, Turkey. The Intensity- Duration – Frequency (IDF) curves and formulas for the estimation of the design rainfall intensity have been developed. Through the application of four different frequency methods, the IDF has been developed for a record of 64 years. The functions employed are; Normal, Log – Normal, Gumbel, and Log –Pearson Type III. A formula for each function developed by determining the parameters with the help of a non-linear regression method. The most appropriate fit of probability distribution determined by goodness of fit test i.e. Chi – Square. The results of the study revealed no evidence of significant trend or nonstationarity in any duration. With an exception to the Normal function which exceeded the critical region in several durations, all the functions found to show high fitting. LPT III identified as the best fit. The coefficient of correlation for the developed formulas found high in all the functions except for LPT III. The study endorsed that the estimation of rainfall intensity for any storm duration and return period can be done for Eskisehir using LPT III and Gumbel formulas as they are evaluated as best fitting.
Highlights
The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events are expected to increase in the future for the regions that already have intense and frequent events, whereas for the regions having less events are expected to witnessed clear decreases in the amount of rainfall [1]
The maximum rainfall intensities are calculated as dependent variable and the return period and the storm duration as independent variables using any of the four Intensity – Duration – Frequency (IDF) curves developed earlier [8, 9, 12, 25]
P values of Mann-Kendall test (MK) and Cox and Stuart tests for all the durations that shown in Table 1 are higher than any of the confidence levels (0.01, 0.05, and 0.1) which means we fail to reject the null hypothesis that data has no trend
Summary
The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events are expected to increase in the future for the regions that already have intense and frequent events, whereas for the regions having less events are expected to witnessed clear decreases in the amount of rainfall [1]. There are several studies which have been conducted around the world in order to examine stationarity/nonstationarity and trend analysis of extreme rainfall data [5,6,7]. This management can be eased by using statistical methods that use extreme rainfall data for carrying out the assessment of water resource management. The objective of this study to analyze the trend of the annual maximum rainfall of Eskisehir and develop IDF curves using several distribution functions followed by deriving formula can be used for estimating the rainfall intensity for any return period and duration
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