Analyzing the influence factors of the carbon emissions from China's building and construction industry from 2000 to 2015

Carbon emissions and policies in China's building and construction industry: Evidence from 1994 to 2012

Carbon emission accounting and carbon peak prediction are the prerequisites for carbon reduction in the current construction industry in China, constituting an important basis for fulfilling the responsibility of carbon reduction. To accurately depict the evolutionary trend of carbon emissions in the construction industry, the carbon emissions of the Chinese construction industry were calculated in stages, based on a full life cycle perspective. The Pearson test was used to select the factors influencing carbon emissions in the construction industry, and an extended STIRPAT model was established. The logarithmic mean Divisia index （LMDI） method was used to analyze the factors in the extended model and calculate the contribution rate of each factor influencing carbon emission. Finally, a multivariate nonlinear regression prediction model based on ASO-BP was constructed to explore the evolution of carbon emissions in the construction industry under multiple scenarios, and policy suggestions were proposed for material production, building operation, and construction. The research results showed： ① Under a small sample environment, the atom search algorithm was superior to other traditional intelligent algorithms in terms of prediction accuracy and time. ② Under multiple scenarios, the Chinese construction industry will achieve carbon peaking in 2030； however, under the current population growth scenario, the construction industry will not reach its peak until 2031, lagging behind in the carbon peaking target. ③ Population changes will lead to the postponement of carbon peaking in three stages, particularly having a considerable impact on the operational stage.

With the rapid development of the global economy, the amount of China’s carbon emission has been increasing consistently in a high speed, causing huge environment problems. The construction industry, as the leading pillar of the national economic and social development, accounts for a large proportion of the total carbon emissions in China. Several calculation methods have been used to calculate carbon emissions. However, the main influencing factors need to be found to reduce carbon emissions. In this paper, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) technique is used to decompose the energy-induced carbon emissions of the construction industry into four factors: construction areas, construction investment efficiency (output value per unit), energy intensity, and carbon intensity. Based on IPCC carbon emission factors and data from Chinese Energy Statistical Yearbooks and Chinese Construction Industry Statistical Yearbooks, the factors of energy-induced carbon emissions in China were decomposed with LMDI method and Kaya equation. Proper countermeasures are proposed to reduce the energy-induced carbon emissions of the construction industry in China.

Based on the whole life cycle perspective, the carbon emissions of the provincial construction industry in China from 2011 to 2019 were calculated from the production, construction, operation, and demolition stages of building materials. A spatial correlation network matrix of the carbon emissions in the construction industry was constructed by using the modified gravity model, and the structural characteristics of the correlation network were described by introducing social network analysis. Through the quadratic assignment program, the spatial correlation matrix of carbon emissions in the construction industry and its influencing factors were regressed and analyzed. The conclusions were as follows:① the spatial correlation network of carbon emissions in China's construction industry clearly existed. The network density and network correlation numbers were gradually rising, and the network tightness and stability were gradually improving. ② Shanghai, Tianjin, Beijing, and Jiangsu had a higher degree centrality and closeness centrality, which are the core and dominant positions of the spatial correlation network of carbon emissions in the construction industry. Zhejiang replaced Shanghai in the top four from 2013 to 2018, and the betweenness centrality of each province had unbalanced characteristics. ③ Beijing, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Shanghai, and Shandong were "net beneficiaries" blocks, receiving the carbon emissions from other regions. Four provinces, Guangdong, Chongqing, Fujian, and Shandong, belonged to the "broker" sector, achieving a dynamic balance between the production and consumption sides of building carbon emissions. The remaining 20 provinces played a "net spillovers" role, actively sending carbon emissions from the construction industry to other provinces. The correlation between blocks was much greater than the correlation relationship within the blocks. ④ Industrial structure, urban population, spatial adjacency, consumption level, and construction industry process structure had a significant influence on the spatial correlation of carbon emissions in the construction industry. The greater the inter-provincial differences in industrial structure, urban population, spatial adjacency, and consumption level, the greater the similarity of inter-provincial construction industry process structure, and the stronger the spatial correlation and spatial spillover of the construction industry carbon emissions. Finally, according to the evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the spatial correlation network of building carbon emissions, relevant countermeasures and suggestions were provided for the collaborative carbon reduction development of the construction industry region.

Carbon emission is further intensified as urbanization and industrialization continue to accelerate. China has maintained its rapid economic development and urbanization in the last 2 decades. The development of the construction industry has not only consumed a large number of energy sources but also resulted in significant carbon emissions, causing some environmental damage. Recognizing the major influencing factors of carbon emissions in the construction industry has become a research hotspot to alleviate environmental pollution caused by the construction industry and meet industrial demands for energy saving and emission reduction. In this study, the factors that influence annual carbon emissions of different building types in China from 2011 to 2018 were decomposed by Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) through a case study in Henan Province. The major influencing factors of carbon emissions have been identified. Results demonstrate that the per capita carbon emission in the construction industry in Henan Province remains high from 2011 to 2018, but it decreases year by year. Carbon emissions from the construction industry in Henan Province increase due to economic development and energy structure. Energy efficiency can inhibit carbon emissions from the construction industry in Henan Province. The obtained conclusions have a positive effect on analyzing annual variations in carbon emissions from the construction industry in a region, identifying influencing factors, and proposing specific countermeasures of energy saving and emission reduction.

Analysis of the non-equilibrium and evolutionary driving forces of carbon emissions in China's construction industry

Driving force analysis of carbon emissions in China’s building industry: 2000–2015

Driving factors of total carbon emissions from the construction industry in Jiangsu Province, China

Investigating interior driving factors and cross-industrial linkages of carbon emission efficiency in China's construction industry: Based on Super-SBM DEA and GVAR model

Global warming caused by carbon emissions has become a major issue that countries need to address. As the largest carbon emitter globally, the construction industry is one of the major contributors to carbon emissions in China. It is of significance for carbon reduction to study carbon emission from construction industry. Based on various methods, this study explored the spatio-temporal characteristics of carbon emissions and the driving factors of construction industry. This study found, in 2007, 2010, and 2012, carbon emissions from the construction industry exhibited an increasing trend, and the indirect carbon emissions accounted for approximately 77% of the total carbon emissions overall; in addition, the regional gaps in carbon emissions are widening. The space centers of gravity of direct, indirect, and total carbon emissions showed similar rotations in the counterclockwise direction and gradually shifted to the northeast direction. Carbon emissions from the construction industry were predominantly influenced by the total population, number of employees in construction industry, labor productivity in construction industry, added value of the construction industry, energy consumption in construction industry in 2007, evolution to the mutual influence of the total population, labor productivity in construction industry, and energy consumption in construction industry in 2012. The finds can make references for the regional sustainable development.

Decoupling relationship between economic output and carbon emission in the Chinese construction industry

Feasibility assessment of the carbon emissions peak in China's construction industry: Factor decomposition and peak forecast

Excessive carbon emissions from energy consumption seriously restrict China's sustainable development and eco-environmental protection. Although the carbon emissions from the construction industry are less than that of the power, transportation, and manufacturing sectors, the carbon emissions released by the construction industry cannot be ignored due to its extensive development trend of high energy consumption and low efficiency. Based on this, this paper studies energy-related carbon emissions and emissions reduction of China's construction industry from 2007 to 2017 by adopting the input-output analysis method, energy consumption method, and structural decomposition model. The results show that within the sample range: (1) The optimization of the construction industry energy consumption structure has a significant reduction effect on the growth of energy carbon emissions from the construction industry in China, and the reduction effect has shown an increasing trend over time. However, it should be noted that in this sample range, the optimization of energy consumption structure in the construction industry is mainly reflected in the decrease of the proportion of high-carbon energy consumption such as raw coal, while low-carbon energy such as natural gas has not played a significant role. Therefore, the future energy optimization space of China's construction industry is still huge. (2) Energy intensity effect and input structure effect have a positive inhibitory effect on carbon emission growth of the construction industry, and the inhibitory effect of energy intensity effect is stronger than that of input structure effect. It shows that in the sample range, the generalized technological progress and energy efficiency of the construction industry have been better optimized and improved. (3) Except for 2015-2017, the final demand effect in other intervals has a positive effect on the growth of carbon emissions in the construction industry, and the secondary and tertiary industries play a major role in the final demand effect. It shows that the total demand for the construction industry in various industries still maintains a growth trend. This paper provides a theoretical analysis basis and practical guidance for China's construction industry to carry out more accurate and efficient emission reduction from the supply-side energy varieties and demand-side industry level, and further enriches the existing research on carbon emissions of the construction industry from the perspective of input-output analysis.

The production of construction projects is carbon-intensive and interrelated to multiple other industries that provide related materials and services. Thus, the calculations of carbon emissions are relatively complex, and the consideration of other factors becomes necessary, especially in China, which has a massive land area and regions with greatly uneven development. To improve the accuracy of the calculations and illustrate the impacts of the various factors at the provincial level in the construction industry, this study separated carbon emissions into two categories, the direct category and the indirect category. The features of carbon emissions in this industry across 30 provinces in China were analysed, and the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model was employed to decompose the major factors, including direct energy proportion, unit value energy consumption, value creation effect, indirect carbon intensity, and scale effect of output. It was concluded that carbon emissions increased, whereas carbon intensity decreased dramatically, and indirect emissions accounted for 90% to 95% of the total emissions from the majority of the provinces between 2005 and 2014. The carbon intensities were high in the underdeveloped western and central regions, especially in Shanxi, Inner-Mongolia and Qinghai, whereas they were low in the well-developed eastern and southern regions, represented by Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Guangdong. The value creation effect and indirect carbon intensity had significant negative effects on carbon emissions, whereas the scale effect of output was the primary factor creating emissions. The factors of direct energy proportion and unit value energy consumption had relatively limited, albeit varying, effects. Accordingly, this study reveals that the evolving trends of these factors vary in different provinces; therefore, overall, our research results and insights support government policy and decision maker’s decisions to minimize the carbon emissions in the construction industry.

The building sector contributes significantly to carbon emissions, impeding China's progress toward its 2030 carbon emissions peak target due to the limited utilization of renewable energy sources. This study aims to forecast the peak and timing of carbon emissions in China's construction industry to chart a low-carbon roadmap for the sector's future. Initially, an extended logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition model, based on the Kaya identity, is proposed to gauge the contribution levels of driving factors affecting building carbon intensity. Subsequently, a hybrid prediction model (IGA-BP) is constructed, employing an optimized two-hidden-layer neural network via a genetic algorithm, to forecast building carbon emissions and intensity. Additionally, four scenarios are outlined, each defining pathways to simulate emissions peak, carbon peak timing, and intensity within the Chinese building sector from 2020 to 2050. The research findings reveal: (1) The final emission factor of buildings primarily drives the surge in building carbon intensity, while the industrial structure stands as the most significant limiting factor. (2) Compared to alternative models, the proposed hybrid prediction model more effectively captures the evolution pattern of carbon emissions. (3) The prediction results indicate that China's building carbon intensity has reached its peak. Pathway 12 closely aligns with the sector's carbon emissions peak, projecting a peak value of 5.609 billion tons in 2029. To attain this pathway, China needs to develop more precise and feasible emission reduction strategies for its buildings. Overall, the research outcomes furnish robust references for decision-making in future efforts aimed at reducing building emissions.