Analyzing the impact of urban planning on population distribution in the Montreal metropolitan area using a small-area microsimulation projection model

Abstract

The objective of this paper was to project the population of the Montreal Metropolitan Community’s municipalities over the 2006–2031 period and assess the effects of changes to urban planning on the expected spatial distribution of the population. For this purpose, we develop a microsimulation model that performs small-area population projections at a municipal level. This model, called local demographic simulations, takes into account local contextual variables such as the expected number of new housing units to be built. We then compare the results from three scenarios with different constraints on the planned residential development of municipalities. We show that although urban sprawl cannot be avoided, increasing the development potential of the central area can slow it. Results also suggest that the age structure of the central area is not significantly affected by different mobility patterns.