Abstract
In order to predict the spatial distribution of land cover of different topographic factors, a quantitative research on the effects of elevation and slope factors on the process of land cover change during 1980-2007 were conducted using RS(remote sensing) and GIS(geographic information system) technology. Yuli county in Xinjiang is chose as the research area, two periods of MSS/TM remote sensing images in 1980 and 2007 and 1:50000 topographic map were taken as main data sources. The results showed that: during the past three decades: the area of cropland, forest-grass land, water, and construction land changed prominently, cropland mainly was converted into forest-grass land, water mainly converted into the forest-grass land; construction land expanded into the extent of high elevation; cropland and the construction land were distributed consistently on gradient, change trends of both land covers were identical, and expanded into the region of steeper slope; the forest-grass land with 3o; the water body kept reducing across the whole region. The changes of land use were mainly caused by topographic factors and social economy. It is feasible to predict the spatial distribution of land cover based on topographic data, remote sensing images and socioeconomic data, the results provided scientific basis for eco-environment evaluation and sustainable development in the region.
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