Analysis on all-cause mortality rate and life expectancy in China, 2005-2018

BackgroundThe aging population in China is increasingly evident, leading to a shift in the patterns of disease burden. This study aims to investigate changes and trends in mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), life expectancy (LE), and health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) in China from 1990 to 2021.MethodsThis study presents a secondary analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, with a focus on mortality, DALYs, LE, and HALE. We examined changes in these indicators in China from 1990 to 2021, comparing them with global averages and across five SDI regions. Using Joinpoint Regression Software, we analyzed trends in the top ten cause-specific DALY rates in 2021. Furthermore, we employed the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model to forecast age-standardized rates (ASR) of mortality for the next decade.ResultsChina witnessed a decrease in the ASRs of mortality (1198.16/100,000 [1098.61–1294.10] to 644.68/100,000 [555.12–735.51]) and DALYs (43085.42/100,000 [39330.62–47273.39] to 22717.19/100,000 [19748.18–25903.34]) from 1990 to 2021. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the ASRs of mortality and DALY declined in China (23009.47/100,000 [19661.21–26495.58] in 2019), but global rates and those across the five SDI (Socio-demographic Index) regions increased. Projections indicate a continued decline in the ASRs of mortality over the next decade, from 2019 to 2035 and 2021 to 2035. Notably, DALY rates for the top 10 level 2 causes in 2021 decreased over the past three decades, except for musculoskeletal disorders (AAPC% 95%CI, 0.10 [0.07–0.14], men; 0.05 [-0.02–0.13], women) and sense organ diseases (AAPC% 95%CI, 0.38 [0.33–0.43], men; 0.35 [0.30–0.41], women). LE and HALE increased across all age groups in China over the same period, although there was no significant change in the HALE/LE ratio.ConclusionEffective policy implementation and technological advancements could play a crucial role in alleviating disease burdens associated with aging in China, thereby reducing the country's all-cause mortality rate and enhancing the quality of life for its residents.

Current estimates indicate that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused 14.9 million excess deaths in 2020 and 2021. Thus, estimating the change in life expectancy at birth due to the COVID-19 pandemic could aid in understanding its impact and implementing public health initiatives. We collected data on the life expectancy at birth of the combined population between 1990 and 2021 at the global, regional, and national levels from the 2022 Revision of World Population Prospects. In this time series study, we estimated the trend segments, the change of trend years (joinpoints), the annual percentage change (APC) in life expectancy at birth within each trend segment, and the average APC (AAPC) in life expectancy at birth during the full study period using joinpoint regression analysis. The global life expectancy at birth decreased from 72.8 years in 2019 to 71.0 years in 2021, with an annual decrease of 1.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.0, 1.5) during the 2019-2021 period, despite an overall increasing trend during the entire period from 1990 to 2021 (AAPC = 0.3%; 95% CI = 0.3, 0.4). We observed a significantly increasing trend in life expectancy at birth in all regions and nearly 87.7% (207/236) of the world's countries and areas during the entire period (1990-2021). All continental regions except Africa and Oceania experienced a significant decreasing trend in life expectancy at birth in 2019-2021, with an APC of -1.2% (95% CI = -1.5, -0.9) for Asia, -2.1% (95% CI = -2.7, -1.6) for Latin America and the Caribbean, -1.1% (95% CI = -1.6, -0.6) for Northern America, and -1.4% (95% CI = -1.9, -0.9) for Europe. Among all countries and areas, 107 countries and areas (45.3%) experienced a significant decreasing trend in life expectancy at birth in the most recent time segment, with 77 countries and areas (32.6%) experiencing a significant decreasing trend during the 2019-2021 period. The world experienced a significant decreasing trend in life expectancy at birth in 2019-2021, with a decrease of 1.8 years; all continental regions except Africa and Oceania and 77 countries and areas experienced a significant decreasing trend in life expectancy at birth. These decreasing trends at global, regional, and national levels during the 2019-2021 period reflected the COVID-19 pandemic's direct and indirect adverse effects on life expectancy at birth.

Burden of 292 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in Iran, 1990-2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.

Trend in Age-Specific Cancer Mortality and Cancer-Free Life Expectancy in China, 2008-2017: An Analysis of Nationwide Data

Liver diseases are the serious cause of death in China. We aim to describe the trends and disparities of major liver disease mortality rates and the loss of life expectancy (LLE) in China. Annual percentage change (APC) and average APC (AAPC) were calculated using the Joinpoint regression model. LLE was calculated using cause eliminated life table. From 2006 to 2017, the overall age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of liver cirrhosis lightly declined (AAPC: -2.97%), whereas the ASMR of viral hepatitis and liver cancer remained stable. Viral hepatitis (AAPC: -4.36%) and liver cirrhosis (AAPC: -4.35%) ASMRs both declined for females. The highest ASMRs of viral hepatitis and liver cirrhosis were in the west region, while that of liver cancer was in the middle region. The ASMRs of liver cirrhosis in the middle region and liver cancer in the east region significantly decreased. The means of LLE on viral hepatitis, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer were 0.05, 0.1 and 0.46years, respectively. The burden of liver diseases is still severe and there are disparities between genders and different regions in China. Accurate early diagnostic approaches for high-risk populations should be established to eliminate the burden of liver diseases.

The burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to high systolic blood pressure across China, 2005–18: a population-based study

Cuts to local government funding and stalling life expectancy

Background:Ischemic Heart Diseases (IHDs) are the main causes of deaths all over the world. Since there is no comprehensive study on IHDs mortality rate in Iran, the present study aimed to estimate age-standardized IHDs mortality rate by sex, age, geography, and time trends at both national and sub-national levels in Iran.Methods:We used the Death Registration System (DRS) data from 1990 to 2015 collected by the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education across the country, Tehran, and Isfahan main cemetery, not included in the DRS. Utilized death distribution methods to overcome the incompleteness of data. Statistical models including Spatio-temporal and Gaussian-Process Regression models were used to extrapolate all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates.Results:Age-standardized IHDs mortality rate in Iran almost doubled from 1990 to 2015. Forty-nine deaths per 100.000 population in 1990, which increased to 91.6 deaths per 100.000 in 2015). Male to female age-standardized mortality rate increased from 1.07 to 1.32 during the studied period. Aging was associated with an increase in age-standardized IHDs mortality rate in both sexes, all provinces, and all of the years. The range of age-standardized IHDs mortality rate for both sexes was from 58 to 136.2 deaths per 100,000 across provinces in 2015.Conclusion:Due to the increase in age-standardized IHDs mortality rate in Iran, it seems necessary to design and implement appropriate public health interventions by health authorities to prevent and control this group of diseases.

Trend in age-specific cancer mortality and cancer-free life expectancy in China, 2008–17: a cross-sectional survey of nationwide data

Global Disease Burden From Acute Glomerulonephritis 1990–2019

Burden of disease induced by public overexposure to solar ultraviolet radiation (SUVR) at the national and subnational levels in Iran, 2005–2019

Mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state, education, religion, or ethnicity. Forecasting mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in making social policies associated with the national and sub-national levels. However, base forecasts at the sub-national levels may not add up to the forecasts at the national level. To address this issue, we consider the problem of reconciling mortality rate forecasts from the viewpoint of grouped time-series forecasting methods (Hyndman et al. in, Comput Stat Data Anal 55(9):2579–2589, 2011). A bottom-up method and an optimal combination method are applied to produce point forecasts of infant mortality rates that are aggregated appropriately across the different levels of a hierarchy. We extend these two methods by considering the reconciliation of interval forecasts through a bootstrap procedure. Using the regional infant mortality rates in Australia, we investigate the one-step-ahead to 20-step-ahead point and interval forecast accuracies among the independent and these two grouped time-series forecasting methods. The proposed methods are shown to be useful for reconciling point and interval forecasts of demographic rates at the national and sub-national levels, and would be beneficial for government policy decisions regarding the allocations of current and future resources at both the national and sub-national levels.

Life expectancy by county, race, and ethnicity in the USA, 2000–19: a systematic analysis of health disparities

The overall mortality consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States are predominantly attributable to the direct impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection but there are substantial indirect effects among children and young adults, and in mortality from accidents, homicides, and overdoses.

The overall mortality consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States are predominantly attributable to the direct impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection but there are substantial indirect effects among children and young adults, and in mortality from accidents, homicides, and overdoses.