Analysis of the Trend and Determinants of Cassava Consumption in Nigeria (1970 – 2020): Implications for Food Security Goal of the Nation

Abstract

Considering the rate at which the country’s population increases, there is need to match the level of food production with the population growth of the nation. Hence, assessing the trend and determinants of cassava consumption is an important step towards achieving the food security goal of the nation. This study therefore analyzed the determinants of cassava consumption in Nigeria from 1970 – 2020 with the aim of providing empirical results of the trend and determinants of cassava consumption in the country. Time series data collected, spanning from 1970 – 2020 were tested for stationarity using ADF unit root test and analyzed using trend and regression analyses and the Error Correction Model (ECM). The ADF test showed that only per capita income was stationary at level, I (0), other variables were stationary at first difference, I (1) while population was stationary at second difference, I (2). The trend analysis showed that cassava consumption was generally on the increase over the period of study. The coefficients of population, per capita income, cassava production and exchange rate were positively related to cassava consumption and statistically significant at 1% probability level while the ECM shows that the coefficient (-0.9359) was negative and statistically significant at 1% probability level (P < 0.01), which indicates a long run relationship between the variables in the model and cassava consumption. The study therefore concludes that there was a general increasing trend in cassava consumption over the period of study and that the major determinants of cassava consumption in Nigeria were population growth, per capita income, price of cassava and cassava production. Based on the research findings, it was recommended that cassava being one of the priority crops on the Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA) should be given priority in order to increase the level of production of the crop.