Analysis of the Allocation of Resources in Family Planning Programs

Abstract

The reduction of population growth rates through family planning programs is being attempted in many of the developing nations of the world. This activity lends itself aptly to mathematical modelling. Building from the well-known difference equation model of population growth, a model is constructed which integrates population dynamics, program activities and resource consumption. The model may be used predictively to assess the outcome of various program activities. Alternatively, it may be used to determine the pattern of activities which yields the greatest reduction in births under the projected resource constraints. A further use of the model is the identification of the parameters to which predictions are most sensitive; such information provides valuable insights to those gathering the input data. The model is here applied to two family planning programs currently in progress. An evaluation of the feasibility of the program's goals is provided, as well as information on limiting resources, data sensitivity and the most important ages for contraceptive acceptance. The model's generality is such that it can be applied to most birth control programs which are planned at the national or regional level.