Analysis of spatio-temporal variability of temperature, relative humidity and temperature humidity index in Naivasha Sub-county, Kenya

Abstract

The aim of the study was to understand the environmental conditions impacting the reproductive performance of Sahiwal cattle, focusing on temperature, relative humidity, and relative humidity index (RHI). These factors significantly influence reproductive rates, highlighting the importance of spatio-temporal variability studies for informed herd management decisions. This study analyzed climate variability trends from 1998 to 2019 at the Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO) Dairy Research Institute (DRI)-Naivasha, in Malewa Ward, Naivasha Sub-County, Kenya. Daily minimum and maximum temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) data sourced from the Kenya Meteorological Department were utilized. The Temperature-Humidity Index (THI) was computed using the THI equation developed by Mader. Time series analyses, including the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates, were employed to assess seasonal variability. Results indicated significant decreasing trends in temperature across all the four seasons studied (DJF, MAM, JJA, and SON), with rates of cooling at -0.0625, -0.0175, -0.0125, and -0.0342 °C per year, respectively. In contrast, relative humidity showed statistically significant increases in all seasons, with rates of +0.5977, +0.999, +1.4493, and +1.0499 for DJF, MAM, JJA, and SON, respectively. Seasonal THI exhibited significant decreases in DJF and JJA, potentially impacting livestock reproductive performance. These findings are crucial for policymakers to create adaptation and mitigation methods to address climate change effects on livestock and livelihoods.