Analysis of seasonal variability and complementarity of wind and solar resources in Mexico

Abstract

Solar and wind time variability may be mitigated by complementing each other, providing firm power to the national grid at local and regional scales. The field commonly utilizes reanalysis data; however, it is crucial to conduct bias analysis and validation to enhance reliability. Mexico’s vast geography and resource potential demand a comprehensive study to validate the accuracy of modeling critical meteorological variables in power estimations. This study explored wind and solar resources’ local and regional complementarity using experimental and ERA5 data. A bias-correction method was used to identify bias effects on power estimations and the reliability of long-term capacity factor analysis. Spearman’s coefficient was used as the complementarity index. The results show that the capacity factor of wind turbines is affected by bias-correction methods compared to that of photovoltaics. Spearman’s coefficient, in general, is robust over bias-correction. The Yucatan Peninsula displays significant potential throughout the year, Spearman −0.6, for combining offshore wind farms with onshore photovoltaics. During summer, the north-central, northeast regions and the Baja California Peninsula offer significant potential for combining wind and solar energy, −0.6 and −0.5 values, respectively. Incorporating renewable energy requires further analysis of local integration and technical limitations to create sustainable long-term solutions.