Analysis of Rural Interstate Fatality Rates in Consideration of Recent Increases in Maximum Statutory Speed Limits

Abstract

The relationship between traffic safety and speed limits has been an area of significant research. Since the repeal of the National Maximum Speed Law in 1995, states have full autonomy in establishing maximum statutory speed limits. Since 2001, at least 25 states have increased their maximum limits to speeds as high as 85 mph. This study examines changes in rural interstate fatalities from 2001 to 2016 in consideration of such increases. Speed limit policy data include the maximum speed limit for each state–year combination, as well as the proportion of rural interstate mileage posted at each speed limit in each state. Random parameter negative binomial models are estimated to control for unobserved heterogeneity, as well as time-invariant effects unique to each state. The results show that increasing the mileage of rural interstates posted at 70, 75, or 80 mph by 1% is associated with fatality increases of 0.2%, 0.5%, and 0.6%, respectively. These increases are more pronounced than when considering only the maximum statutory limits in each state. The study also examines the influence between these higher limits and the frequency of fatal crashes involving speeding and driver distraction. At the highest limits of 75 and 80 mph, the increases among these subsets of crashes are greater than the increases in total fatalities. Ultimately, this study provides important empirical evidence in support of continuing speed limit policy discussions, in addition to identifying salient analytical concerns that should be considered as a part of longitudinal analyses of state-level fatality data.