Abstract

Recently, crude oil price becomes volatile and have been the popular issue to be discussed in every country. Oil price fluctuations have major impact on the overall economy and finally will lead to increase in the inflation rate. It is important to describe these oil price fluctuations mathematically. This study aims to describe the above phenomena using geometric Brownian motion. Two crude oil prices, namely WTI and Brent have been analyzed based on daily oil price data from year 2000 until year 2015. Through the analysis using model assessment and model determination, crude oil price after year 2000 follows geometric Brownian motion process. We conclude that oil price fluctuations follow a geometric Brownian motion process without considering unexpected incidents.

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