Analysis of land use changes and soil erosion using the EPM-IntErO model in the Sokobanja Basin, Serbia

Abstract

Soil erosion, with the progressive loss of fertile topsoil and its negative impact on agricultural productivity, has become a critical global environmental problem. In the second half of the 20th century, many municipalities in Serbia experienced significant changes in land use, vegetation, and environmental conditions. The drive towards industrialization and urbanization aimed to improve the living standards of the population, but as a consequence, it led to substantial depopulation of rural areas and the adoption of inadequate agricultural practices, which, in turn, further intensified soil erosion. This study focuses on the Sokobanjska Moravica River basin (Eastern Serbia), extending to the Bovan Lake Dam and upstream, with a total area of 540.4 km². The basin is situated in a characteristic karst landscape. Changes in erosion intensity and runoff from this basin are analyzed using the Intensity of Erosion and Outflow (IntErO) model, which algorithmically integrates the widely used Erosion Potential Method (EPM) with innovative computational techniques to predict sediment production and runoff from the river basin accurately. This analysis utilizes GIS software and official statistical yearbook data, focusing on the period from the second half of the 20th century, including the analysis of the current state. According to our research, the most intensive changes in land use occurred between 1961 and 1971, marking the beginning of the period of a decline in rural population and, consequently, a decrease in erosion intensity. Key findings indicate that predominant changes in land use and vegetation led to a shift from crop farming to animal husbandry. After 1971, ongoing depopulation, particularly in rural areas, resulted in a gradual and steady decrease in erosion intensity. The primary aim of this study is to support policymakers in developing more effective soil and water conservation regulations. By making recommendations for the protection of vegetation, and thus the soil within this river basin, this research helps ensure their long-term preservation. Future research should focus on the long-term impacts of current land use practices and develop strategies to mitigate erosion in the context of changing climate conditions.