Analysis of fluid pressure propagation in heterogeneous rocks: Implications for hydrologically‐induced earthquakes

Abstract

Mathematical models are developed to study the propagation of excess pore pressure in heterogeneous and fractured rocks. For a homogeneous rock, the time needed for a pore pressure front to migrate downward is directly proportional to the square of the depth, and inversely proportional to the permeability of the rock. Variational studies show that pore pressure propagation is highly influenced by the permeability heterogeneity of the crust. The results argue for the importance of accounting for geologic complexity when using mathematical models to estimate the extent of downward transmission of increases in hydraulic heads. The models presented in the paper are used to estimate a range of possible hypocentral depths of periodic seismicity observed near Mt. Ogden on the Alaska‐British Columbia border. The time lag between these earthquakes and hydrologic loading is on the order of days or weeks, indicating a quick response of seismicity to the increased surface water input from rainfall or glacial discharge, if such a causal relationship exists. Our models estimate that the hypocentral depths of these earthquakes could be on the order of several kilometers, if a high degree of vertical interconnectivity of fractures exists.