Analysis of expert perspectives on possible futures of the urban areas of South Korea

Abstract

This study aims to examine the urban change drivers and urban futures in 2040 in South Korea using a Q methodology survey conducted among experts in Korean urban studies. The Q methodology is a factor analysis of participant perceptions, unlike other methods that are focused on deriving a consensus. The most significant advantage of this method is that it facilitates the examination of multiple hypotheses. Here, the urban change drivers were categorized into 1) policy, 2) economy and technology, 3) society and the public, and 4) technology-oriented types. All types tended to agree that urban policy is the driver of future change and that the impact of collective intelligence on urban policymaking will increase. However, dissensus was reached regarding the results of low birth rates, aging population, and technological advancements. The respondents were categorized according to urban futures as follows: 1) mixed-use and transit-oriented development (TOD)-oriented, 2) smart technological management-oriented, 3) green and underground space expansion-oriented, and 4) safety, energy, and environment-oriented. All respondents disagreed that the demand for urban development will decrease and new developments will emerge from non-urban areas. In addition, they agreed that the role of urban planning that focuses on management via smart technology will improve. Dissensus has emerged regarding the ultra-expansion of metropolitan cities, TOD, and integrated information and communication-based platform management for infrastructure. These differences in opinions imply that in-depth discussions and agreements are needed to establish relevant urban policies.