ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN ALTAI KRAI

Abstract

This paper presents the analysis of the dynamics of the main economic and demographic indicators of the Altai Territory of Russia (Altai Krai) for the period 2000-2020 and defines the trends in their change, as well as their interconnectedness. The studied variables included such indicators as the number of births and deaths, arrivals and departures, average life expectancy, average per capita income, GRP, GRP per capita, etc., as well as the corresponding relative indicators. For the analysis, the methods of visual-graphical, correlation, and multivariate nonlinear regression analysis were used. More than 20 statistical indicators of the demographic and socio-economic development of the region for the period 2000-2020 were considered. As a basic model for regression analysis, a model based on the Cobb-Douglas function was applied. On the basis of correlation analysis and stepwise regression, taking into account the assessment of multicollinearity and the statistical significance of the model parameters, three factors were selected for inclusion in the econometric model, which are quite strongly and statistically significantly related to the population size: the number of people who left, the real income per capita, and GRP per capita in comparable prices. As a result of comparing the generalized indicator of the effectiveness of the influence of factors on the change in the total population with the indicator of the scale of the influence of factors on this change, it was concluded that there was a tendency for the population of the region to decrease over the study period with the increase in the scale of socio-economic factors, which indicates on the extensive development of the region's economy.