Abstract
Currently, research on the development of crash models in terms of crash frequency on road segments and crash severity applies the principles of spatial analysis and heterogeneity due to the methods’ suitability compared with traditional models. This study focuses on crash severity and frequency in Thailand. Moreover, this study aims to understand crash frequency and fatality. The result of the intra-class correlation coefficient found that the spatial approach should analyze the data. The crash frequency model’s best fit is a spatial zero-inflated negative binomial model (SZINB). The results of the random parameters of SZINB are insignificant, except for the intercept. The crash frequency model’s significant variables include the length of the segment and average annual traffic volume for the fixed parameters. Conversely, the study finds that the best fit model of crash severity is a logistic regression with spatial correlations. The variances of random effect are significant such as the intersection, sideswipe crash, and head-on crash. Meanwhile, the fixed-effect variables significant to fatality risk include motorcycles, gender, non-use of safety equipment, and nighttime collision. The paper proposes a policy applicable to agencies responsible for driver training, law enforcement, and those involved in crash-reduction campaigns.
Highlights
The road connects the biggest regions of Thailand including the “North” and the “Northeast.” The official report of the average daily traffic (AADT) on this road could be assessed by the Thailand Department of Highways [46]
For the crash frequency model, a Vuong z-statistic test found that a zero-inflated model is more appropriate than an negative binomial (NB) model
According to the intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC), it was found that 9.7% of the crash frequency varies correspondingly with the responding area of the Department of Highway district (DOH)
Summary
The Thailand Road Safety Center [1] stated that the reduction of road crashes is a crucial component of the country’s sustainable development. The Thai government intends to reduce annual crash fatality rates to less than 10 people for every 100,000 people by 2022. According to the WHO estimates, the annual death rate in Thailand remains at 32.7 people for every 100,000 people. Thailand is ranked 9th in the world in terms of crash fatality rates [2]. Given the statistical trend of road crashes under the responsibility of Thailand’s
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