Abstract
Abstract China–Nepal Highway is an important international passage connecting China and Nepal. Owing to its location in a complex mountainous area in the Qinghai– Tibet Plateau, the Shigatse section of the China–Nepal Highway is often impacted and troubled by mudflow. In order to effectively conduct road construction and maintenance and improve early disaster-warning capability, the relationship between various hazard factors and disaster points was analysed. It is found that four factors such as slope, precipitation, soil type and digital elevation have the strongest correlation with the occurrence of the disasters. From the distribution of disaster points, it is observed that the disaster point is closely related to the slope, its local correlation with precipitation is good and the its local correlation with the soil type and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data is significant. In order to quantitatively evaluate the susceptibility of mudflow disasters in the Shigatse region, this paper uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) as the main analysis method supplemented by the fuzzy clustering method. The results show that the slope, when accompanied by heavy rainfall, is the most important factor among four factors. In this paper, the neural network method is used to establish the identification and early warning model of mudflow susceptibility. When the recognition rate reaches 66% or above, it can be used as an early-warning threshold for mudflow disasters. This study has conducted a useful exploration of the research, assessment and early warning of mudflow disasters along the Shigatse section of the China–Nepal Highway.
Highlights
1.1 Introduction to the Shigatse section of the China–Nepal HighwayChina–Nepal Highway, located in the central part of the Hindu Kush–Himalayan region, begins in the east in Lhasa, which is the capital city of the Tibet Autonomous Region of the People’s Republic of China; it ends towards the west in Kathmandu, which is the capital of the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal
In order to quantitatively evaluate the susceptibility of mudflow disasters in the Shigatse region, this paper uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) as the main analysis method supplemented by the fuzzy clustering method
Mudflow refers to the mountains or other deep valleys, steep terrain regions, because of heavy rain, blizzard, or other natural disasters caused by landslides and special with a large number of sediment and rocks in the torrent, is essentially a strong surface change, only when the debris flow of human living environment including buildings, transport facilities, life and property is dangerous, as disasters
Summary
China–Nepal Highway, located in the central part of the Hindu Kush–Himalayan region, begins in the east in Lhasa, which is the capital city of the Tibet Autonomous Region of the People’s Republic of China; it ends towards the west in Kathmandu, which is the capital of the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal. It is 943 km long and the most important land-based connecting passage between China and Nepal. Assessment and Early Warning of Mudflow Disasters along the Shigatse Section
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