Analysis and Short-Term Peak Forecasting of the Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions in the Construction Industry at the Provincial Level in China

Abstract

The construction industry plays a pivotal role in China’s achievement of its “dual carbon” goals. This study conducts a decomposition analysis of the carbon emissions from the construction industry (CECI) at both national and provincial levels for the period 2010–2020 and employs the ARIMA model to predict the short-term peak trends at the provincial level. The findings are as follows. (1) Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Sichuan, and Chongqing exhibit an N-shaped trend in CECI, while the northeast region shows an inverted U-shaped trend. (2) Labor productivity and energy intensity are identified as the largest and smallest drivers of national CECI growth, respectively, with the driving force of the study’s identified factors fluctuating between 1% and 60%. (3) Energy intensity significantly contributes to the growth of CECI in Tianjin and Zhejiang, while it aids in reducing CECI in western provinces. The “rebound effect” of building energy efficiency is particularly pronounced in provinces with strong resource endowments, such as Ningxia. (4) Between 2021 and 2025, CECI is predicted to decrease in the northern and economically developed provinces, while it is expected to increase in central and western provinces, with Heilongjiang, Shandong, Guangdong, Shanghai, and Shaanxi potentially reaching their peaks within the forecast period. The paper concludes with several recommendations.