Analysis and Prediction of Carbon Emission for Urban Building Sector in China: A Case Study in Shenzhen

The increasing district heating energy consumption of the building sector in China: Decomposition and decoupling analysis

Sustainability assessment of low carbon technologies–case study of the building sector in China

Analysis of national and local energy-efficiency design standards in the public building sector in China

Uncertainty of energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the building sector in China

Life cycle sustainability assessment of ground source heat pump in Shanghai, China

The electricity demand for space cooling in the non-residential building (NRB) sector of China is growing significantly and is becoming increasingly critical with rapid economic development and mounting impacts of climate change. The growing demand for space cooling will increase global warming due to emissions of hydrofluorocarbons used in cooling equipment and carbon dioxide emissions from the mostly fossil fuel-based electricity currently powering space cooling. This study uses the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interaction and Synergies (GAINS) model framework to estimate current and future emissions of hydrofluorocarbons and their abatement potentials for space cooling in the NRB sector of China and assess the co-benefits in the form of savings in electricity and associated reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG), air pollution, and short-lived climate pollutant emissions. Co-benefits of space cooling are assessed by taking into account (a) regional and urban/rural heterogeneities and climatic zones among different provinces; (b) technical/economic energy efficiency improvements of the cooling technologies; and (c) transition towards lower global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants under the Kigali Amendment. Under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the total energy consumption for space cooling in the NRB sector will increase from 166 TWh in 2015 to 564 TWh in 2050, primarily due to the rapid increase in the floor space area of non-residential buildings. The total GHG mitigation potential due to the transition towards low-GWP refrigerants and technical energy efficiency improvement of cooling technologies will approximately be equal to 10% of the total carbon emissions from the building sector of China in 2050.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11027-022-10021-w.

The decarbonization process of the carbon emissions in the Chinese building sector exerts a profound impact on the achievement of the national goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Currently, there is limited literature quantifying the impact of laws and policies on the achievement of carbon peak in the Chinese building sector and further utilizing deep learning technology to characterize the carbon emissions peak path under uncertainty in the Chinese building sector. To address this issue, a quantitative framework of legal and policy incentive intensity is constructed to capture both the immediate effects and the long-term evolution of laws and policies, and the index of legal and policy incentive intensity for carbon emissions in the building sector in China from 2010 to 2022 is calculated. Based on this, a dynamic scenario forecasting model for carbon emissions in the Chinese building sector is developed by integrating a CNN-BiLSTM-AM model with the Monte Carlo simulation algorithm, embedded within the scenario analysis method. The model projects the dynamic trajectories of carbon emissions in the Chinese building sector under different scenarios from 2023 to 2050 and identifies effective schemes for controlling carbon emissions in the Chinese building sector. Results indicate that the growth in legal and policy incentive intensity was most significant during the 12th Five-Year Plan period in China. During the 13th Five-Year Plan in China, the legal and policy system became increasingly mature, leading to a diminishing marginal effect of newly issued policies. A negative growth in legal and policy incentive intensity was observed in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. From 2021 to 2022, the annual growth rate of policy intensity began to rebound. Under the current scenario, carbon emissions in the Chinese building sector are projected to reach its carbon peak in 2036 (±1), with a peak level of 28.617 (±1.047) × 108 t CO2. Energy consumption per unit floor space, population size, legal and policy incentive intensity, integrated carbon emission factor, and floor space per capita are identified as the most critical factors influencing the timing and value of carbon peaking. The research methodology employed in this study not only provides scientific insights for the emission reduction efforts in the building sector but is also applicable to related studies in other industries’ energy conservation and emission reduction. It holds universal value for environmental policymakers and strategic planners.

China's energy consumption in the building sector: A Statistical Yearbook-Energy Balance Sheet based splitting method

Between 1980 and 2007, in the Chinese building sector in urban and rural areas, coal was mainly substituted with electricity and natural gas. Growing income will further increase energy consumption and CO2-emissions in the building sector. Using an econometric model, disaggregated energy demand and related CO2-emissions in the residential sector as well for the whole economy are estimated and forecasted until 2050. In 2009, the Chinese government pledged itself to reduce CO2-intensity by 40%–45% in 2020 compared to 2005. Aim of this article is to assess to which extent the measures in the building sector in China can contribute to this target. Main results of the analysis are: (a) The primary energy source coal was mainly substituted by electricity generated with coal. Apart from convenience gains, the environmental advantages are questionable. (b) Between 2010 and 2050, energy demand in the building sector will grow by 2.0%–4.1% per annum leading to CO2-emissions at least almost tripling from about 560 mill. tons in 2010 to about 1,500 mill. tons in 2050. (c) The energy efficiency gains in the building sector and other sectors of the Chinese economy, however, are not enough to fulfill the national CO2-intensity targets. The reduction of the CO2-intensity of GDP would be 37.2% in the BAU-scenario, and 31.9% in the LOW-scenario. Only in the HIGH-scenario (46.3%), the economy is growing efficient enough relative to the induced CO2-emissions. The remaining CO2-emission reductions could be gained by additional promotion of renewable energies (mainly solar and geo-thermal) in the building sector.

Overcoming barriers to implementation of carbon reduction strategies in large commercial buildings in China

Low carbon roadmap of residential building sector in China: Historical mitigation and prospective peak

The rapid growth of energy consumption in commercial building operations has hindered the pace of carbon emission reduction in the building sector in China. This study used historical data to model the carbon emissions of commercial building operations, the LASSO regression was applied to estimate the model results, and the whale optimization algorithm was used to optimize the nonlinear parameter. The key findings show the following: (1) The major driving forces of carbon emissions from commercial buildings in China were found to be the population size and energy intensity of carbon emissions, and their elastic coefficients were 0.6346 and 0.2487, respectively. (2) The peak emissions of the commercial building sector were 1264.81 MtCO2, and the peak year was estimated to be 2030. Overall, this study analyzed the historical emission reduction levels and prospective peaks of carbon emissions from China’s commercial buildings from a new perspective. The research results are helpful for governments and decision makers to formulate effective emission reduction policies and can also provide references for the low-carbon development of other countries and regions.

The ambitious goal of limiting end-of-century temperature rise relative to pre-industry level below 1.5 °C will offer both great challenges and opportunities in terms of curbing energy use and CO2 emissions for the building sector of China. This paper simulates the long-term trend (2010–2100) of energy consumption and CO2 emissions of the building sector in China, within the framework of 1.5 °C climate target, with application of GCAM-TU model. The impacts of energy efficiency improvement and carbon policy on energy savings and emission reductions are also explored. The results show that direct CO2 emissions from the building sector would have to peak around 2030, and cumulative emissions during 2015–2100 would be limited to 48.2 Gt CO2 in the 1.5 °C-consistent scenario. The share of electricity in building’s energy consumption by the mid-century would be 8.9% higher than that under 2 °C scenario. Accelerating efficiency improvement would create significant energy savings relative to the reference scenario, especially in space heating and cooling. However, the emission reductions required by the 1.5 °C temperature increase limit cannot be effectively achieved without the collaboration of economic-wide carbon policy, which would play important role in the deep decarbonization of the energy system. Finally, it is suggested that policy makers should further strengthen technological efficiency improvement in the building sector to help enhance energy performance, while carefully devising prospective carbon policies to facilitate fast and early mitigation.

Interactions between carbon prices and the construction industry in China: Evidence based on Network-SVAR

Do commercial building sector-derived carbon emissions decouple from the economic growth in Tertiary Industry? A case study of four municipalities in China