Analysis and Feasibility of China's Coal Industrial Policy

Abstract

On November 23, 2007, China's NDRC announced its ‘Coal Industrial Policy’. This study begins with an analysis of China's ‘Coal Industrial Policy’. Second, this study assesses the feasibility of the supply and demand and restructuring efforts proposed in the ‘ Industrial Policy.’ It is estimated herein that restructuring efforts will in fact result in a supply shortage of approximately 200–400 million tons in 2013. This supply shortage is expected to have a negative influence on the success of the restructuring effort that constitutes another major goal of the ‘Coal Industrial Policy.’ Moreover, the fact that coal companies account for some 25% of gross industrial output and overall employment in some regions can be expected to result in the central government's decision to close down small mines being challenged by local governments. This assessment of the ‘Coal Industry Policy’ currently being promoted by the Chinese government will serve as exogenous variables for studies on related topics such as China's prospects for coal demand, and the relationship between the country's economic development and energy resources such as coal.