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Analysing Russia-Ukraine war: the context, evolution, and global economic-cum-institutional implications

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TL;DR

The study analyzes the Russia-Ukraine war's political, military, and economic impacts, highlighting Ukraine's extensive damages and Russia's sanctions and economic decline, while emphasizing the conflict's broader effects on global markets, supply chains, and international relations, and calling for sustained diplomacy.

Abstract
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The Russia-Ukraine war is one of the significant geopolitical crises of the 21st century, with far-reaching political, social, and economic consequences. It begins with the legacy of the Cold War, highlighting the impact of NATO enlargement on shaping Russia’s perceptions of security. It examines President Putin’s strategic motives, based on nationalism, fear of NATO expansion toward Russian-speaking regions, and attempts to reaffirm Moscow’s regional power. This study examines political, military, and economic aspects of the Russia-Ukraine war for both countries and the global world order. Ukraine has suffered vast displacement, infrastructure damage, and long-term losses of investment and trade, whereas Russia has been hit by sanctions, shrinking exports, and currency devaluation. The war has disrupted global food and energy supplies, exacerbated inflation, and rattled supply chains. Mediation by international bodies, such as the UN and the EU, has been largely ineffective. Furthermore, the findings of this study suggest that the conflict is not merely a regional battle, but also an economic one, reshaping global markets and altering the political relationships between countries. Sustained diplomatic engagement and strong international cooperation will be necessary to achieve lasting peace, and one cannot ignore the humanitarian and economic elements at stake.

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The damaging economic, political, and diplomatic effects of Russia’s attack on Ukraine in February 2022 have not been confined to just continental Europe. The highly interconnected and interdependent nature of the global economy means that other regions are similarly, or even more negatively, affected by any outbreak of hostilities in states like Ukraine that prove integral parts of global food and energy supply chains. This is particularly the case with the South Asian region that has a predominance of developing economies already struggling to provide adequate basic services to their citizens, especially in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and other climate change related natural disasters like floods and wildfire. The aim of this paper is to analyse the ongoing economic and geopolitical effects of Russia’s war against Ukraine in South Asia, highlighting how sustained disruptions in global food and energy supply chains exacerbate existing insecurity in developing economies. The corollary to this economic insecurity is increased inter-regional tensions as individual states compete against each other for increasingly scarce and costlier food and energy resources.

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The multi-layered, complex and long-lasting Syrian civil war-an extension of the Arab Spring, which started in Tunisia in December 2010, has caused one of the largest forced migration movements in recent history due to many internal and external factors such as the regime, sectarian divisions, regional/international interventions and the structure of the Syrian opposition, has made Turkey one of the main countries hosting millions of refugees. This situation creates various social, economic and political effects on host societies, leaves deep marks especially on the perception of security. This study examines the physical security perceptions of local communities in Turkey. The province of Gaziantep, which has a high refugee density, and the province of Balıkesir, which has a low refugee density, were selected within the framework of the “Most Similar Systems Design (MSSD)” method. Although the socio-economic levels of both provinces are similar, the refugee density differs significantly. In the study, the perception of physical security was measured through the evaluations regarding issues such as violence, crime, terror and access to public services. The data collected through the survey revealed that the perception of threat towards refugees is significantly higher in Gaziantep compared to Balıkesir. It was determined that demographic variables such as education level, job security and local affiliation also affect these perceptions. The findings show that forced migration has multidimensional effects not only in terms of demographics but also social security. In this context, public policies should focus not only on crisis management but also on long-term social cohesion and improving security perceptions.

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Scarcity Of Pain Medication In Pakistan Following The Devaluation Of Currency.
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Madam, The scarcity of drugs harms patient safety and care.1 Media publications on the shortage of painkillers tend to generate panic and anxiety among the public owing to their role in patient analgesia and recovery. Pain, especially when untreated, has far-reaching consequences for patients' quality of life, including psychological, physical, social, and economic consequences. Untreated pain has proven to be associated with depression, mood fluctuations, and emotional instability, resulting in an overall low quality of life. The shortage of medicines is common globally, and the causes are multifaceted depending upon the region in consideration. Currently, Pakistan is in a similar crisis where the decreased availability of medications, among which analgesics constitute a vast proportion, is leaving many holes in quality, patient management and care protocols2-3 The reasons for the current crisis are multifactorial. However, the major chunk of it lies in the devaluation of the currency and the skyrocketing prices of petroleum, which has caused inflation among all utilities, including medicine. Reports by media outlets have shown an 80% increase in prices compared to prices five years prior. In contrast, the Pakistan Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association (PPMA) chairman claimed only a 21–30% price increase. The gravity of the situation can be further augmented by the fact that the cost of paracetamol was increased from Rs 600/kg to Rs 2600/kg earlier this year, yet the medicine remains unavailable in the market.4 The scarcity of medication is not limited to pharmacies but has also found its way to hospitals, where the healthcare providers either have to prioritize patients when it comes to giving analgesia or there is no analgesia available in smaller setups.5 Another factor contributing to this predicament is the climate change-induced floods in the country. There is an increased demand for medicines, including painkillers, in flood-stricken areas and the decline in production due to non-availability of raw products owing to inflation has doubled the aftermath of this calamity. It is of the utmost urgency to mitigate this crisis, as analgesics are the most commonly used over-the-counter medicines and constitute a whole tier of patient care. To get to the bottom of the problem there needs to be more research, analysis, and investigation executed at a national level on how to streamline the production, distribution and sale of medicine, on alternative sources of treatment and if possible the placement of subsidies so that the barrier to the consumer is reduced.

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The World's energy consumption has increased drastically over the past several decades, particularly driven by increasing population and economic activities as well as rising living standards with technological advancements. Since the industrial revolution, fossil fuels have been the major source of energy productions, which is today shown as the primary cause of the ongoing climate change and associated environmental challenges in threatening the existence of many living species and human life and comfort. According to the statistics provided by International Energy Agency (IEA),1 the global energy supply was 14 282 Mtoe in 2018 that is 115% higher than that of the value for 1973. Fossil fuels, such as natural gas, coal and oil are still playing a critical role and covering more than 80% of global energy demands. The concerns associated with global warming and depletion of energy sources have been directing the attention to renewable and environmentally-benign energy solutions. 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Furthermore, the Canadian institutes are ranked based on their scholarly ouputs and publications to indicate the most productive ones in the field of energy storage based on the data presented in the literature sources. Energy storage is described as the capture of harvested energy for later use to maintain the balance fluctuations between energy demand and supply. As the world moves towards a low-carbon economy, energy storage systems are exepcted to even play a more critical role in extracting more energy from renewable resources.10 The intermittent characteristic of renewable resources, specifically solar and wind, is one of the major challenges ahead of a reliable and steady renewable energy supply. This can be avoided by storing excess energy to re-use when the renewable resources are not sufficient or unavailable. Energy storage systems can be categorized in different ways in regards to the form of converted and stored energy. Figure 1 presents an overview of energy storage system categories which are considered in this study. It is important to note that chemical energy storage allows to storage and transportation of large amounts of energy for long distances with minimal self-discharge rates, which is crucial for the distribution and effective use of renewable energy resources. Figure 2 presents the energy density of various chemical fuels and batteries. Despite possessing high energy density, environmental concerns associated with the production and consumption of fossil-based chemical fuels, e.g. diesel, gasoline or natural gas, should be adrressed. In regards to nature-friendly chemical energy storage, particularly power-to-gas chemical storage, hydrogen is attracting favorable attention nowadays. In this regard, hydrogen appears to be the lightest and most abundant chemical element in the universe, but is not available freely (by itself). However, it occurs naturally within a compound such as water (H2O); therefore, it is an intermediate energy form. Excess electricity from renewables can be utilized in hydrogen production processes, i.e. electrolysis of water, to store energy in chemical form. Power-to-hydrogen chemical energy storage is a unique and clean method, and it can be compatible with electrochemical storage since hydrogen possesses much greater energy content. One of the major challenges with hydrogen is the low calorific value per unit of volume (MJ/m3) due to its low density. This can be avoided by deploying alternative hydrogen carriers, such as ammonia. Liquefaction at atmospheric conditions, high hydrogen atom content and high energy density characteristics make ammonia a favorable medium for storage and transportation of energy. It is further to note that batteries and capacitors are devices allowing electrochemical storage of electricity. The potential energy is stored in chemical form in batteries, while capacitors are expected to store their potential energy in the form of an electric field.14 Batteries are thus most commonly used and matured options that propose high energy densities and voltages. Lithium-ion (Li-ion), sodium-sulphur (NaS), nickel-cadmium (NiCd), lead acid (Pb-acid), lead-carbon batteries, zebra batteries (Na-NiCl2) and flow batteries are the existing battery types used in various applications. Due to their high specific energy (per unit weight) and high specific energy (per unit volume), lithium batteries attract considerable attention in electrical energy storage. Capacitors can be classified as electrostatic capacitors, electrolytic capacitors, and electrochemical capacitors, among which electrochemical, so-called supercapacitors, promote the highest capacitance per unit of volume owing to a porous structure 15. As a mechanical energy storage method, pumped hydro accounts for more than 95% of the global installed energy storage capacity.15 The main advantage of mechanical energy storage is to readily deliver energy. The method is easy to adapt for conversion and storage of energy from various sourcessuch as water current, wave, or tidal. Pumped hydro, compressed air, and flywheel are the commonly practiced mechanical energy storage methods. Pumped hydro and compressed air are bound to specific geographical characteristics, which is the main restriction for the implementation of these energy storage methods. A flywheel stores the energy obtained from a rotor mass spinning at very high speeds as kinetic energy. The stored kinetic energy can be later used to produce electricity by altering the angular velocity of the flywheel through a decelerating torque and using an electric motor in reverse 16. Despite of being non-suitable for long-term energy storage, flywheels offer favorable advantages, that is, long-life spin, high energy densities and low maintenance costs, and fast charging.17 Thermal energy storage (TES) systems are effective systems to store heat in a reservoir for a period of time (defined or undefined) for later use, that is, space heating and cooling, electricity production, hot water. If the reservoir temperature is kept under the atmospheric temperature, the storage process is called cold thermal energy storage.18 Operating temperature range, capacity requirements, charging and discharging requirements are some of important parameters when choosing an appropriate TES system for a desired application. Since the major proportion of produced and consumed energy is heat around the world, TES systems carries a significant weight regarding the development of effective energy systems . Furthermore, energy losses from the systems commonly occur in the form of heat. Decreasing losses via further utilizing from waste energy is one of many way to mitigate environmental impacts, which can be accomplished by implementing TES systems in a cost effective manner. In the current study, an overview of Canada's energy storage related studies from 1971 to 2021 is presented. The scope of this study is to present the contributions of Canadian universities, research institutes and funders to energy storage research and development efforts over the last five decades. The keywords and methodology that are used for the literature search are depicted in Figure 3. The collected and compiled data for the corresponding fields are presented in figures, and results are discussed in the following sections. In this study, an online literature search is conducted on Canada's energy storage related studies over the last five decades. The current section presents collected and compiled data in charts. The findings of the conducted study are discussed in detail. The most productive institutes of Canada regarding conducting or sponsoring energy storage-related studies are presented. The documents associated with energy storage in all subject areas are presented in Figure 4. In this regard, the highest number of energy storage-related studies were conducted in the subject area of engineering in Canada from 1971 to 2021. The fields of energy and chemistry appear as the other two major subject areas in which high number of energy storage research was conducted. While compiling data, attention has been paid to any potential field conflicts concerning the multi attribution of interdisciplinary publications. Therefore, it should be noticed that chemistry may have an impact on the subject areas of biochemistry, genetics, and molecular biology. The same impact of engineering could be seen on the subject area of energy. The data collected and analysed for comparative evaluation reveals that the Canadian institutes have produced 37 386 energy storage-related academic research publications over the last 50-year period. In this regard, Figure 5A presents the breakdown of energy storage-related publications affiliated to Canada in the corresponding material types in accordance with the publication years. Figure 5A shows that studies in this field consistently increases every year. Consequently, the year 2020 appears as the most productive one in this regard as of April 2021. In the light of this trendline, predicting that the year 2021 will be more productive than 2020 would not be wrong. Figure 5B has been prepared as a heat map to show Canada's provinces where energy storage-related studies were conducted over the last 50 years. In this regard, Ontario appears as the most productive province of Canada in terms of scholarly publications. However, one has to keep in mind that Ontario has the highest number of contributing institutes/universities compared to the rest of the provinces in Canada. Figure 6 presents the breakdown of the number of energy storage-related books, book chapters, and editorials in accordance with publication years in Canada. The year 2018 was the most productive year of Canada by producing 200 documents in the corresponding classification. The other important point that should be pinned in the figure is the year 2005. Compared to the previous year, almost five times more energy storage-related books were published in 2005. Compared to 2019, the number of published books decreased almost by half in 2020. The impact of COVID-19 is recognized as one of numerous reasons behind this result. The number of energy storage-related dissertations completed in Canada over the last five decades is primarily searched through and collected from Library and Archives Canada. The search results are, in this regard, presented in Figure 7. It can be noted that the data presented in Figure 7 is based on the number of energy storage-related theses available in the library; and thus, the results are subject to change in accordance with instantaneous new data entry to the library. As of April 2021, there are 626 energy storage-related MSc and PhD theses/dissertations entered in the online system of Library and Archives Canada. The highest number of theses/dissertations was recorded in the year of 2013 with a value of 62. Based on data collected from the website of Canadian Intellectual Property Office, the number of energy storage-related patents of Canada is 11 719 for the last 50 years. The corresponding results are presented Figure 8. According to this, the year of 2018 appeared to be the Canada's most productive year in terms of patents registered under the title of energy storage. Canada is blessed with institutions that have been supporting energy storage-related research and developments by providing funds. Over the evaluated period of 50 years, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) appears as the major funding agency for Canada's energy storage related research, development, partnership, strategic innovation and commercialization efforts and has supported more than 8500 projects in the field of energy storage. A total number of projects that have been funded by Canadian institutes have become 18021 from 1971 to 2021. It is most likely to observe a major increase in the number of projects by the impact of the recent hydrogen strategic plan of Canada. Being an excellent energy storage medium is one of many advantages of hydrogen. Therefore, there is a significant correlation in between hydrogen and energy storage research efforts. The subject matter report is already named as call-to-action for green hydrogen transition for the energy sector. In the report, the importance of dedicating more domestic resources to green hydrogen efforts to achieve the targets by 2050 is emphasized clearly (Figure 9). The development and implementation efforts of effective, affordable, and nature-friendly energy storage systems are recognized as a key requirement in achieving a green energy transition. In this regard, Canada intends to be the country leading and inspiring many others. Figure 10 shows the a number of Canadian institutes/universities that have produced more than 100 scholarly publications on energy storage under the subject area of energy. According to this, the total number of such scholarly publications has been 9125 over the past five decades. The results clearly show that there are two universities, such as University of Waterloo with 809 publications and Ontario Tech. University (formerly University of Ontario Institute of Technology) with 697 publications, leading in this particular area. University of Waterloo appears as the most productive Canadian university with a total number of 809 publications while Ontario Tech. University, which is one of the Canada's youngest universities, follows with a total number of 697 publications. The specific affiliations in the publications show that the researchers working in the productive environment of Clean Energy Research Laboratory (CERL) at Ontario Tech. have played a major role in this achievement. The data that support the findings of this study are available in Scopus, Library and Archives Canada and Canadian Intellectual Property Office with the reference number of [17], [18], and [19], respectively. These data were derived from the following resources available in the public domain: https://www.scopus.com/search/form.uri?display=basic&zone=header&origin, https://www.bac-lac.gc.ca/eng/services/theses/Pages/search.aspx, https://www.ic.gc.ca/opic-cipo/cpd/eng/search/basic.html?wt_src=cipo-patent-main.

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International Handbook of Energy Security
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  • 10.1016/j.esr.2013.04.002
A global energy outlook to 2035 with strategic considerations for Asia and Middle East energy supply and demand interdependencies
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A global energy outlook to 2035 with strategic considerations for Asia and Middle East energy supply and demand interdependencies

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The Geopolitical Role of Central Asia in China’s Energy Supply Security Axis
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  • Soner Hamzaçebi + 1 more

China’s rapidly increasing energy demand and limited domestic resources have prompted the country to develop strategies to diversify energy supply and ensure secure procurement. Central Asia emerges as a critical region due to its abundant oil and natural gas reserves and its direct overland access to China. Infrastructure projects, energy partnerships, and long-term agreements in the region not only strengthen China’s energy security but also enhance its economic and diplomatic influence. This study aims to examine the strategic role of Central Asia in China’s global energy strategy and to assess the impact of regional geopolitical dynamics on China’s energy security, supply diversification, and regional influence in a comprehensive framework. The main research question is why Central Asia holds a strategic position in China’s global energy strategy and how geopolitical factors in the region shape China’s energy policies. The study analyzes the geopolitical stability, geographical position, and energy resources of Central Asia in relation to China’s strategic objectives. The findings indicate that Central Asia not only provides an energy supply to China but also occupies a central position supporting Beijing’s regional and global power projection. Consequently, Central Asia plays a critical role in China’s energy strategy, and regional geopolitical dynamics are decisive factors shaping China’s energy security and regional influence.

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The role of organisational nesting in risk-sharing – a case study of water security in the South African Sugar Industry
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  • Figshare
  • Busani Masiri

One of human society’s priorities is to achieve water security. However, this securement will require farsighted collective action. For many organisations, the dynamic process of maintaining an effective alignment with the environment while managing internal interdependencies is complex, encompassing decisions and actions at several organisation levels. Alignment of stakeholder behaviour towards common goals is important in the governance of common-pool resources such as water. This thesis is based on the premise that organisational nesting and polycentric governance enable stakeholders in the South African sugar industry to align their behaviours and manage risk collectively based on their perception of the rules and expected benefits from the outcomes. It is also based on how they affect interpretation and management of risk in the industry, with particular reference to water scarcity. The objective of this research was to gain insight into how the sugar industry achieves the farsighted collective action required for progress toward water security. Because water security is a reflection of exposure to risk, I postulated that organisational structure and governance would be consciously adapted to manage risk. One approach to promoting learning and adaptation in complex systems, such as the sugar industry, is to implement polycentric governance. The design of the study was qualitative in nature. In this research, I used a case study approach to investigate the role of organisational nesting in risk-sharing among sugar industry members within the uMngeni River Basin in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. I used semi-structured interviews with industry stakeholders to gain insight into their perceptions of water security and how it was affected by institutional design. The interviews were conducted with twenty two respondents from the sugar industry. These respondents included sugarcane growers and their representatives, millers, extension services, and natural resources management representatives of the sugar industry. Respondents based their perceptions of water security on issues such as quality, quantity, and broader sustainability, including the nature of resource development and its social and economic consequences. I use these responses to interpret how perceptions of risk have influenced the evolution of governance, particularly polycentric governance, in the industry. Findings from this research suggest that in its response to risk to water security, the South African sugar industry is using polycentric governance. In addition, these findings show that organisational nesting and polycentric governance have facilitated the development and implementation of programmes that contribute to attaining a sense of water security within the industry. These results provide an insight into the wider relevance of risk-sharing and organisational nesting among actors in social-ecological systems regarding water security.

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