An Unexpected Link between Export Sanctions and Cyberespionage *

Abstract

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Do export controls cause cyberespionage? Despite significant interest in both export controls and cyberespionage, the link between them remains understudied. This article argues that when export controls restrict a target country's access to advanced technology, it may resort to cyberespionage as a workaround. A 2SRI analysis of 747,716 directed dyad-year cases from 2001 to 2020 shows that countries under export sanctions are more likely to conduct cyberespionage attacks against sanctioning countries during this period. Case studies of North Korea and China further illustrate how export controls can drive cyberespionage. These empirical findings support our hypothesis, suggesting that states may conduct cyberespionage as a means of circumventing export controls.