An overview of South Pacific population problems

The upper bound of 0.126 on the maximum demographically possible annual growth rate for humpback whales that has standardly been imposedon recent applications of age-aggregated assessment models for this species in the IWC Scientific Committee, is based on an analysis that assumessteady age structure. It is conceivable that transient age-structure effects could admit greater population growth rates for short periods than suggestedby such a bound. This possibility is addressed by developing an age-structured population model in which possible density dependent changes inpregnancy rate, age at first parturition and natural mortality are modelled explicitly, and allowance is made for the possibility of natural mortalityincreasing at older ages. The model is applied to the case of the west Australian humpback whale population (Breeding Stock D), for which breedingground surveys over the 1982–1994 period provide a point estimate of 0.10 for the annual population growth rate. Results based upon the breedingpopulation survey estimate of abundance of 10,032 in 1999 suggest that 0.12 is the maximum demographically feasible annual rate of increase forthis stock over 1982–1994 if it is a closed population. This result is based on essentially the same parameter choices as led to the earlier r = 0.126bound, i.e. that in the limit of low population size the age at first parturition approaches five years from above, the annual pregnancy rate 0.5 frombelow, and the annual natural mortality rate 0.01 from above. Transient effects do not appear able to reconcile the observed rate of increase withless extreme values of demographic parameters than led to the previously imposed upper bound of 0.126 on the maximum possible annual growthrate. Although use of extreme values reported for demographic parameters for Northern Hemisphere humpback whale populations, rather than thoseconsidered here, would reduce this suggested maximum rate of 0.12, the conclusion that transient effects have a very limited impact on observedpopulation growth rates would be unlikely to change.

The Yaeyama Islands provide habitat for juvenile green turtles originating from various rookeries in the western Pacific. The sea turtle fishery has been declining since 2004 due to the retirement of sea turtle fishermen in the region. We investigated the population ecology of green turtles based on capture–mark–recapture data from 1995 to 2016. The effect of the past sea turtle fishery on the green turtle population was analyzed by comparing the population structure, growth and mortality rates during 1995–2003, with those of the population in 2004–2016. Mean straight carapace lengths of green turtles in 1995–2003 were 51.5 cm (SD = 10.9, range 34.0–102.4, N = 838), annual growth rates were 2.7 cm year−1 (SD = 1.31, range 0.09–5.32, N = 50), and mortality rates were 0.25 year−1 (95% CI 0.20–0.30). In comparison, mean straight carapace length of green turtles in 2004–2016 was 55.5 cm (SD = 12.1, range 6.2–96.5, N = 595), growth rates were 2.24 cm year−1 (SD = 0.78, range 0.79–4.17, N = 67) and mortality rates were 0.15 year−1 (95% CI 0.11–0.19). Carapace size increased and annual growth and mortality rates decreased after 2004. The increase in the number of larger-sized green turtles and the decrease in mortality rates were likely effects of the decline in the sea turtle fishery.

The rate of GDP growth accelerated in Bangladesh since the beginning of the 1990s. The three-year average annual growth centered around 1990/91 was 4.77 percent. Population grew at 2.18 percent per year at the time so that the annual rate of growth in per capita income was 2.53 percent. The three-year average annual growth in GDP centered around 2010/11 had risen to 6.34 percent while the rate of population growth had fallen to 1.39 percent, making the annual growth in per capita income 4.88 percent, as much as 93 percent higher than what it was two decades before! Note that the rate of growth in per capita income would have been only 4.07 percent if the population growth rate had remained the same as at the beginning of the 1990s. Thus more than a third of the acceleration in per capita growth was due to the fall in the rate of population growth.

Understanding the relationship between growth and temperature will aid in the evaluation of thermal stress and threats to ectotherms in the context of anticipated climate changes. Most Pecten maximus scallops living at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere have a larger maximum body size than individuals further south, a common pattern among many ectotherms. We investigated differences in daily shell growth among scallop populations along the Northeast Atlantic coast from Spain to Norway. This study design allowed us to address precisely whether the asymptotic size observed along a latitudinal gradient, mainly defined by a temperature gradient, results from differences in annual or daily growth rates, or a difference in the length of the growing season. We found that low annual growth rates in northern populations are not due to low daily growth values, but to the smaller number of days available each year to achieve growth compared to the south. We documented a decrease in the annual number of growth days with age regardless of latitude. However, despite initially lower annual growth performances in terms of growing season length and growth rate, differences in asymptotic size as a function of latitude resulted from persistent annual growth performances in the north and sharp declines in the south. Our measurements of daily growth rates throughout life in a long-lived ectothermic species provide new insight into spatio-temporal variations in growth dynamics and growing season length that cannot be accounted for by classical growth models that only address asymptotic size and annual growth rate.

(1) The objective is to test the generality of Elliott's (1975a) growth model developed on brown trout, Salmo trutta, fed on maximum rations, and the data are observed growth rates of parr of anadromous brown trout from twelve Norwegian rivers. (2) The mean annual instantaneous growth rates of the twelve Norwegian brown trout populations in their second year of life (1 +) varied between 1-14 and 1 94. In five of the rivers, the annual growth rates were not significantly different from those computed from the model, whereas values in four rivers were significantly higher than those computed. Values in three rivers were significantly lower than those computed. The mean growth rates on a 1-year basis varied between 76 and 136% of the computed maximum for that temperature regime. In thirty-eight of the fifty-four comparisons, recorded growth rates were not significantly different from those computed from the model, but ten were significantly higher and six significantly lower than model predictions. (3) In three rivers brown trout were sampled twice annually, once just after the ice break in late April or early May, and again in early August. The daily growth rates in early summer in all three rivers were higher than the corresponding growth rates computed from Elliott's model. In late summer the observed compared to the computed growth rates were usually lower than in early summer, and in some cases no growth was observed after early August. (4) The growth rates of brown trout in some Norwegian rivers exceeded the established rates for trout fed on maximum rations. This indicates genotypic differences in the growth rates of Norwegian populations and the experimental fish in England, or higher food intake in wild trout exposed to diel fluctuating temperatures than among experimental fish held at constant temperatures.

The study aimed to estimate the rate of growth of effective demand for poultry products in Egypt until 2015, to compare it with the projected growth in production estimated from time series 1991-2010, The results showed that The average annual growth rate M effective demand for chicken meat was estimated at about 2.3% per capita and 4.4% at the national level -after adding population growth-which was expect. to face a lower growth in domestic Proudhon of about ) 9% per year. These results would indict an expected small shortfall, due to an expected modest growth in demand for chicken me.. Which M turn was not only due to a relatively low income elasticity of demand for chick. meat (0.423), it was also due to relative low population growth rate (2.07%). The annual growth rate per capita of table eggs estimated as 1.08, and the national annual growth rate of effective demand for table eggs was about 3%, that would face an annual growth rate in supply from domestic production of about 3.06% Such expectations indicated an excess in production than demand for the table eggs market which in turn would Dad ta recession in the domestic table eggs industry, unless a development in demand associated with diversity in the types of supplied products would exist. However the estimated annual rate of growth in prices of both products was 7%,8% , which might imply high growth in cost of production behind the high growth in price in table eggs and due to red meat demand pressure on the demand for chicken meat with improvement in technology towards lower production costs. The study provided some recommendations, providing market incentives to export expected excess table eggs production to the nearest markets of deficit such as the Libyan market and Gaza Strip, to release the current barriers on imports frozen broiler of reasonable quality and moderate price as well as encouraging more growth in production associated with improvement in technology towards lower production nut. in order m absorb part of the Increasing demand for red meat which would be reflected in higher red meat Price and greater pressure on the consumption of thicken meat

Population growth, and other population characteristics, have been computed and made available online for over 2000 animal species in the Add-my-Pet (AmP) collection, assuming constant food and temperature environments. The AmP collection – online database of Dynamic Energy Budget model parameters, implied properties and referenced underlying data – provides an unique opportunity to study how energetics of individuals relates to population growth. For the comparisons of traits, we assume that the background hazard rate is zero, but aging applies to all species and ‘thinning’ to species with high reproduction rates. The new concept ‘thinning’ is a state-dependent hazard rate such that the feeding rate of a cohort does not change in time: the increase of individual feeding rates due to growth is exactly compensated by a reduction in numbers. Thinning affects population growth rate, but the impact differs substantially between species. Some 11% of species do not survive thinning, even at abundant food. The population growth rate relates to the underlying energetics; we discuss and suggest explanations for how population growth rates fit into all known patterns in the co-variation of parameter values: body size-scaling, metabolic acceleration, waste-to-hurry, supply-demand spectrum and altricial-precocial spectrum. We show that, after reproduction, age at puberty dominates population growth. The specific population growth rate scales with maximum body weight in the same way as the weight-specific respiration scales with body weight. DEB theory, which explains both, shows, however, that no direct relationship exists between the population growth rate and respiration. We suggest that the similarity in scaling results from the equality between specific population growth and specific growth rate at maximum growth of structure, and might be an evolutionary relict from times that life consisted of dividing unicellulars; population and body growth are directly connected for unicellulars. We show that the specific growth rate at maximum growth equals 1.5 times the von Bertalanffy growth rate, in a DEB context, which is a new interpretation of the latter growth rate. We expected the population growth rate to co-vary with specific somatic maintenance rate, based on a previously discovered pattern, called the waste-to-hurry strategy, where growth and reproduction are increased by simultaneously increasing assimilation and somatic maintenance in species that live off temporarily abundant food supplies. We did find this effect in ecdysozoa and spiralia, which comprise roughly 95% of animal species, but hardly so in tetrapods. The reason might be that specific somatic maintenance also co-varies with specific maturity levels at puberty for tetrapods. The scaled functional response at which the population growth rate is zero is very close to that at which puberty can just be reached in absence of thinning, and somewhat higher in presence of thinning. The specific population growth rate at abundant food correlates negatively with the functional response for which population growth rate is zero. It also correlates negatively with the precociality index, i.e. the ratio of maturity levels at puberty and birth: the more precocial, the larger neonate size, the smaller reproduction rate, especially in restricted taxa such as mammals and cartilaginous fish. Like other traits, the population growth rate shows considerable segregation among taxa, where mammals have a relatively low rate, glires a relatively high rate among mammals, followed by marsupials; afrotherians have the lowest population growth rates.

Comparing population growth rates using weighted bootstrapping: Guiding the conservation management of Petrogale xanthopus xanthopus (yellow-footed rock-wallaby)

Background: Multi-morbidity poses a substantial challenge for health care in an aging population. Recent studies did not provide evidence for general side effects of anti-cancer therapy regarding the growth rate of coincident abdominal aortic aneurysms, although it was suggested that specific therapeutic substances might accelerate growth. Aneurysm pathology, however, differs with respect to localization. Hence, we present the first ever analysis on the association of cancer and cancer therapy with growth alteration of aneurysms of the ascending aorta (AscAA). Patients and methods: A retrospective single-center identification of AscAA+cancer patients was performed in the institutional picture archiving and communication system (PACS). Included were all patients with ≥2 CT angiograms over ≥6 months and additional malignancy. Clinical data and aneurysm diameters were retrieved and analyzed for an association of cancer (stratified by tumor entity) or cancer therapy (stratified by several classes of chemotherapeutic agents and radiation therapy) with annual growth rate, respectively. Statistics included t-test, Wilcoxon test, and a linear regression model accounting for initial AscAA diameter and type of treatment. Results: From 2003 to 2021, 151 patients (median age 70 years; 85% male) with AscAA and coincident 163 malignancies were identified. Prostate (37%) and hematologic cancer (17%) were most frequent. One-hundred-eleven patients (74%) received chemotherapy and 75 patients (50%) had radiation. After exclusion of six patients with an initial AscAA diameter >55 mm, the average annual AscAA growth rate was 0.18±0.64 mm/year, with only 12 patients experiencing a growth rate >1mm/year. Neither tumor entity nor radiation or chemotherapy - alone or in combination - were significantly associated with an alteration of the annual AscAA growth rate. Likewise, a subanalysis for singular chemotherapeutic agents did not reveal a specific association with AscAA growth alteration. Conclusions: Growth rates of AscAA are low in this cohort with coincident malignancy. Cancer and/or chemotherapy or radiation are not associated with an alteration of the annual growth rate. Additional control examinations seem unnecessary.

.A unique 25‐year lichen growth monitoring programme involving 2,795 individuals of the Rhizocarpon subgenus at 47 sites on 18 glacier forelands in the Jotunheimen–Jostedalsbreen regions of southern Norway is reported. The data are used to address fundamental questions relating to direct lichenometry: spatial and temporal variability in lichen growth rates, climatic effects on lichen growth rates, lichen growth models, and implications for lichenometric dating. Mean annual (diametral) growth rate ranged from 0.43 to 0.87 mm yr−1 between sites, which is attributed primarily to local habitat differences. Interannual variability in annual mean growth rate exceeded 1.0 mm yr−1 at some sites. Annual mean growth rates for all sites combined varied from 0.52 to 0.81 mm yr−1 and was positively correlated with annual mean temperature and winter mean temperature (both r = 0.64, p <0.005) but not with summer seasonal temperature: positive correlations with annual and winter precipitation were less strong and the correlation with summer precipitation was marginally significant (r = 0.41 p <0.10). Growth‐rate models characterized by annual growth rates that remain approximately constant or increase with lichen size up to at least 120 mm tended to fit the data more closely than a parabolic model. This is tentatively attributed to a long ‘linear/mature’ phase in the growth cycle. Comparison with growth rates inferred from indirect lichenometry suggest that such high measured growth rates could not have been maintained over the last few centuries by the largest lichens used in southern Norway for lichenometric dating. Several hypotheses, such as the effects of competition and climate change, which might explain this paradox, are discussed.

The relative importance of sexual and clonal reproduction for population growth in clonal plants is highly variable. Clonal reproduction is often more important than sexual reproduction but there is considerable interspecific variation and the importance of the two reproductive modes can change with environmental conditions. We carried out a demographic study on the woodland strawberry ( Fragaria vesca ), a widespread clonal herb, at 12 sites in Switzerland during 2 years. Study sites were selected in two different habitats, i.e., forest and forest edge. We used periodic matrix models to estimate annual population growth rates and carried out prospective analyses to identify life cycle components that influence population growth rates most. Retrospective analyses were applied to study how the two different habitats affected population dynamics. Furthermore, we tested whether trade‐offs between sexual and clonal reproduction occurred. There were large differences in annual population growth rates between sites and large within‐site differences between years. Results of the prospective analyses clearly indicate that clonal reproduction is the dominant reproductive pathway whereas sexual reproduction is rather insignificant for population growth. Compared to forest habitats, forest edge habitats had higher population growth rates in the first year but smaller growth rates in the second year. We attribute these differing habitat effects to different water availabilities during consecutive years. No trade‐offs between sexual and clonal reproduction were found. In conclusion, population growth of F. vesca relies heavily on clonal reproduction. Furthermore, reproduction and survival rates of F. vesca depend highly on spatio‐temporal variation of environmental conditions.

Retrieving seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rates from annual growth rates that are reported quarterly

Life forms as diverse as unicellular algae, zooplankton, vascular plants, and mammals appear to obey quarter-power scaling rules. Among the most famous of these rules is Kleiber's (i.e. basal metabolic rates scale as the three-quarters power of body mass), which has a botanical analogue (i.e. annual plant growth rates scale as the three-quarters power of total body mass). Numerous theories have tried to explain why these rules exist, but each has been heavily criticized either on conceptual or empirical grounds. N,P-STOICHIOMETRY: Recent models predicting growth rates on the basis of how total cell, tissue, or organism nitrogen and phosphorus are allocated, respectively, to protein and rRNA contents may provide the answer, particularly in light of the observation that annual plant growth rates scale linearly with respect to standing leaf mass and that total leaf mass scales isometrically with respect to nitrogen but as the three-quarters power of leaf phosphorus. For example, when these relationships are juxtaposed with other allometric trends, a simple N,P-stoichiometric model successfully predicts the relative growth rates of 131 diverse C3 and C4 species. The melding of allometric and N,P-stoichiometric theoretical insights provides a robust modelling approach that conceptually links the subcellular 'machinery' of protein/ribosomal metabolism to observed growth rates of uni- and multicellular organisms. Because the operation of this 'machinery' is basic to the biology of all life forms, its allometry may provide a mechanistic explanation for the apparent ubiquity of quarter-power scaling rules.

To evaluate the association between the RENAL nephrometry score and annual growth rates of renal masses presumed to be renal cell carcinoma. The current study included 47 renal tumors followed up for at least 12 months, of which 26 tumors were found to be pathologically proven renal cell carcinomas. Annual tumor growth rates were calculated from changes in the maximal diameter on computed tomography, and RENAL nephrometry scores were recorded on initial imaging by two senior urologists. The associations between clinical characteristics including the RENAL nephrometry score and annual growth rates were analyzed using a linear regression model. The median tumor size at diagnosis was 1.7 cm (range 0.6-5.8). The median nephrometry score at diagnosis was 7 (range 4-10). Overall, the median tumor growth rate was 0.34 cm per year (range -0.19-2.0). Linear regression analysis showed that the annual tumor growth rate was associated with the RENAL nephrometry score (P < 0.0001), but it was independent of the age at diagnosis, sex and initial tumor size. In addition, the correlation between the RENAL nephrometry score and annual growth rate remained significant in the 26 pathologically proven renal cell carcinomas. The RENAL nephrometry score is associated with the annual growth rate of renal masses. Our findings further support the association between the RENAL nephrometry score and tumor biology.

This article is an excerpt from a recently published article on interactions between population and development in the "Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific, 1993." Topics include the dynamics of change (growth, age structure, sex composition, migration); implications for specific development issues (population and education, population and health, population and employment, and population and the environment); and policy approaches (slowing growth, spatial distribution, and the role of women). The Asian focus is on population policy and fertility declines. Different conditions specific to each country and varying degrees of program success give rise to country-specific differences in rates of growth and declines in fertility. Population compositions and pressures on spatial distribution differ among countries. Development demands differ for education, health, employment, and environmental controls. A common feature is that population is integrated into social and economic development policies. The links between population and the environment are recognized and will be integrated into policy as knowledge emerges. The ESCAP region has about 58% of world population, and fertility has declined to 3.1 children per woman. Fertility declines do not result in demonstrable changes in the rate of population growth, because the proportion of reproductive age women has increased and will continue to do so until 2010. Reductions in fertility are balanced by mortality declines. The annual rate of increase has gradually slowed, however the absolute size is still huge. The goal of the Bali Declaration of 1992 is to reach replacement level fertility of 2.2 children per woman by 2010 in the ESCAP region. The UN median variant projects 2.4 children per woman by 2010. The countries unlikely to reach replacement level fertility are India, the Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. Age structure will determine the need for services. For example, South Asia will still have a large proportion aged 0-14 years in 2010 and will require infant care and primary education. Sex composition will be balanced at 20 years and favor females in older ages, except for Vietnam and Cambodia. About 50% of urban growth is accounted for by rural to urban migration, particularly among females.